# Thread: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

1. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

You agree bc you think it's a good strategy within the match. I agrees bc it's a good learning opportunity for nationals. I think that's different.

2. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

This has been one of the silliest conversations I've seen at TWT, and that says a lot.

Look at it statistically. Assume Caldwell (or Molinaro) has a 10% chance of escaping in a period, and also a 10% chance of taking down Dake in a period. We can argue about the percentages but I'm assuming they should be roughly the same. Does anyone disagree with that?

Caldwell's expected point total if he chooses down would be .10 x 1 = .10. Caldwell's expected point total if he chooses neutral would be .10 x 2 = .2. Statistically it makes more sense for Caldwell to take neutral, unless you think the probability of Caldwell escaping is twice the probability of Caldwell taking Dake down.

3. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

And the fact that you are just pulling numbers out of your ass since Caldwell actually DID get out. So aren't his chances closer to 50% since he went down twice and got out once?

4. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

Originally Posted by goferphan
And the fact that you are just pulling numbers out of your ass since Caldwell actually DID get out. So aren't his chances closer to 50% since he went down twice and got out once?
If you think that Caldwell gets out 50% of the time and never takes Dake down then it's always a better idea to take down. I disagree with those percentages, and I don't think it's twice as probable that Caldwell escapes as taking Dake down.

5. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

Originally Posted by Flop The Nuts
If you think that Caldwell gets out 50% of the time and never takes Dake down then it's always a better idea to take down. I disagree with those percentages, and I don't think it's twice as probable that Caldwell escapes as taking Dake down.
Well, then, if taking him down will be easier, why not get the extra one from the escape, and THEN take him down?

Contrary to what was popularly believed on here, Dake CAN be escaped from, and Caldwell proved that. 3 points is better than 2, to my simple mind.

6. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

I would also add that Molinaro was no slouch in the takedown department, and he couldn't take down Dake at the Southern Scuffle last year. In fact, that's part of why SHP surmised that Molinaro DID take down in the third period in their match.

7. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

Caldwell took exactly 0 shots so I'd say his chances of a takedown were 0%. The team score was close at the time and I believe Caldwell's sole purpose was not giving up any bonus. He spent the majority of the match either running or crawling to the out of bounds line. At the point of the escape, Dake had riding time sewn up, so Caldwell basically gets a free point without doing any wrestling.

8. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

If Caldwell needed 3 points to tie at the time and he thought he had a prayer of escaping, escaping and taking down Dake was best chance. I'm guessing Caldwell and Dake have similar body sizes as far as height and build go. Because of this I would give Caldwell a much better chance of escaping Dake versus Molinaro. In either case he didn't have much of a chance. It's gonna take lightning in a bottle for anyone to beat Dake this year no matter what strategy they use. DC

9. ## Re: Dake wbd Caldwell 4-1

I'd also like to add, that calling people jerks, morons, retards, and idiots for expressing an opinion on an opinion website doesn't aid in the open exchange of opinions and ideas which is what I think you all are looking for. Having felt the wrath of the "Forum elites" myself, I feel your pain Ban!