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Thread: And The Winner Is...

  1. #10
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    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Natural disasters give the President the chance to look presidential and challenger end up looking like wannabe who have to back off on their attacks.

    Romney specifically has had to implicitly retract all the statements against FEMA.

    Romney-FEMA: Republican nominee offers statement on federal role in disaster relief.
    Although I still don't see that costing him many votes.

    The latest jobs reports appear to show the economy is slowly improving which takes the wind out of Romney's strongest attack.

    And instead of trusting your own instinct to guess who is going to win what, it makes sense to leave it to the experts. Nate Silver has got a ton of press for his methods and has been dead on for recent election. His is still showing a high percentage likelihood for an Obama win:
    Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

  2. #11

    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Oh, I thought it was something controversial that Romney had done. I've been right about the last five elections, although I don't have a statistical method.

    The economy is in the crapper, debt (both personal and government) is off the charts, the unemployment rate is terrible, taxes will have to rise for everyone who pays taxes, Obama abandoned our people in Benghazi, etc.

    President Romney is on his way, for better or worse.

  3. #12
    World Champ ODH's Avatar
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    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Quote Originally Posted by Flop The Nuts View Post
    Oh, I thought it was something controversial that Romney had done. I've been right about the last five elections, although I don't have a statistical method.

    The economy is in the crapper, debt (both personal and government) is off the charts, the unemployment rate is terrible, taxes will have to rise for everyone who pays taxes, Obama abandoned our people in Benghazi, etc.

    President Romney is on his way, for better or worse.
    Except for Bush/Gore the last eight election have been easy to pick so gettnig five in a row is no big feat

    The economy is going through a very slow recovery which appears to be picking up and personal debt is way down from its high
    Despite tepid growth and still-high unemployment, consumer confidence has soared to a five-year high,
    (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/bu...very.html?_r=0
    According to Gallup, for the first time in over five years, Americans are reporting that they are financially better-off than they were a year ago
    Do you feel better-off now than you did a year ago? | Poll | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

    Unemployment rate is high but slowly dropping,
    Taxes will go up (from the lowest rates they have been in a long time) no matter who is elected,
    Neither candidate has a plausible plan to reduce the debt
    Benghazi situation was a f* up but pales in comparison to previous foreign policy f* ups like Iraq

  4. #13

    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Quote Originally Posted by ODH View Post
    Except for Bush/Gore the last eight election have been easy to pick so gettnig five in a row is no big feat

    The economy is going through a very slow recovery which appears to be picking up and personal debt is way down from its high
    Despite tepid growth and still-high unemployment, consumer confidence has soared to a five-year high,
    (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/bu...very.html?_r=0
    According to Gallup, for the first time in over five years, Americans are reporting that they are financially better-off than they were a year ago
    Do you feel better-off now than you did a year ago? | Poll | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

    Unemployment rate is high but slowly dropping,
    Taxes will go up (from the lowest rates they have been in a long time) no matter who is elected,
    Neither candidate has a plausible plan to reduce the debt
    Benghazi situation was a f* up but pales in comparison to previous foreign policy f* ups like Iraq
    Wow! I never hear ANY of those inconveniences on AM radio or Wiretap News!
    UNI Panthers...Because it's just right.

  5. #14

    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    I don't know what AM radio is saying, but I know the unemployment rate is at 7.9% and there are 12.3 million people unemployed, higher than when O took office. That doesn't count the 6.5 million no longer looking for work. Median household incomes are down.

    Consumer confidence is great, but can be fleeting. If CC trends upward over a long period that's a good sign, but one or two data points aren't a trend.

    Romney's plan to reduce the debt is to lower taxes on business and earners, and to cut spending. Maybe that won't work, I don't know.

    Obama's plan to reduce the debt is unknown, it appears he still believes we can tax and spend our way out of a recession. It hasn't worked yet, maybe we should allow him four more years to experiment?

    Hard to tell how bad the Benghazi situation was, I guess we'll know after the election. That's convenient timing for the incumbent. Hopefully he didn't turn his back on our people.

  6. #15
    World Champ ODH's Avatar
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    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Quote Originally Posted by Flop The Nuts View Post
    I don't know what AM radio is saying, but I know the unemployment rate is at 7.9% and there are 12.3 million people unemployed, higher than when O took office. That doesn't count the 6.5 million no longer looking for work. Median household incomes are down.

    Consumer confidence is great, but can be fleeting. If CC trends upward over a long period that's a good sign, but one or two data points aren't a trend.

    Romney's plan to reduce the debt is to lower taxes on business and earners, and to cut spending. Maybe that won't work, I don't know.

    Obama's plan to reduce the debt is unknown, it appears he still believes we can tax and spend our way out of a recession. It hasn't worked yet, maybe we should allow him four more years to experiment?

    Hard to tell how bad the Benghazi situation was, I guess we'll know after the election. That's convenient timing for the incumbent. Hopefully he didn't turn his back on our people.
    I am not campaigning for Obama I am just pointing out reasons why I think he is going to win.
    His weakest issue is the economy and recent numbers show it continuing to slowly improve. Not being an economist I really don't know what he should have done differently, but there is general agreement that it was not the time for fiscal restraint and budget cuts.

    I see a parallel between Obama and the economy and Bush and the Iraqi surge. Bush got a lot of credit for promoting the surge and getting improvement in Iraq, but the improvement only looked good because of the rest of the occupation was such a disaster. Compared to what he promised when we invaded, every result in Iraq was horrible. Unemployment is still high, but now that it is under 8% there is a sense that things are finally getting better.

  7. #16
    World Champ ODH's Avatar
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    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    More good jobs news:

    Friday's jobs report showed stronger-than-expected payroll growth of 171,000 in October, as well as upward revisions for the prior two months. Separately, the household survey showed an increase of 410,000, making September's big surge look less like an anomaly, much less a conspiracy

    Job Growth Brightens But “There Are a Few Dark Clouds in This Picture”: Reinhart | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance

  8. #17

    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Quote Originally Posted by ODH View Post
    More good jobs news:

    Friday's jobs report showed stronger-than-expected payroll growth of 171,000 in October, as well as upward revisions for the prior two months. Separately, the household survey showed an increase of 410,000, making September's big surge look less like an anomaly, much less a conspiracy

    Job Growth Brightens But “There Are a Few Dark Clouds in This Picture”: Reinhart | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance
    I just tuned into the last few minutes of comedian/party boss Rush I Want Big Gubment To Pay For MY Internet Porn Limbaugh before the break and now I know why he was in such a foul mood!

    Sean McVeigh Hannity usually spends two hours screaming into the microphone on days when good economic news come out.

    God news for America is bad news for republicans.
    UNI Panthers...Because it's just right.

  9. #18

    Default Re: And The Winner Is...

    Not to toot my own horn, but if anyone wants to be entertained right now, turn on Sean McVeigh Hannity. He is screaming so loud that it will actually hurt your ears.

    Too much good news for him, apparently! LOL!
    UNI Panthers...Because it's just right.

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