Natural disasters give the President the chance to look presidential and challenger end up looking like wannabe who have to back off on their attacks.

Romney specifically has had to implicitly retract all the statements against FEMA.

Romney-FEMA: Republican nominee offers statement on federal role in disaster relief.
Although I still don't see that costing him many votes.

The latest jobs reports appear to show the economy is slowly improving which takes the wind out of Romney's strongest attack.

And instead of trusting your own instinct to guess who is going to win what, it makes sense to leave it to the experts. Nate Silver has got a ton of press for his methods and has been dead on for recent election. His is still showing a high percentage likelihood for an Obama win:
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com