Lets face it, it can all come crashing down in America and the world in the next 5 years. Growth is the heart of capitalism but growth is also cancer of energy.
How do you drive the capitalist machine under these conditions?
Population will continue to grow. Products wear out. People get promotions. Just a lull in the economy right now. There is huge amount of exports going on and imports have never been so cheap.
The DOW will likely fall to 10600 which really means knowing unless you sell at that level. Like always the economy will rebound once it adjusts.
Businesses don't want to reduce staff. It's too expensive to cut staff these days since the severance pay benefit is commonplace for big firms, and it's is too expensive to rehire and retrain once the economy starting a popping once again. Profits may be down but most, outside of Big Auto, Big Finance and Big Builder, are still making a profit.
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Nobody can predict the price of oil. Oil was $10 a barrel in 1998 at the end of the Asian Contagion. Oil was cheap in the 60s and early 70s, expensive in the mid 70s to early 80s, moderated and decreased from 1982 until 2005. Since 2005 it has surged to levels not thought possible. With the exception of a burp or two in the economy, is has grown each year. It may not grow much this year or next. We'll see.
Originally Posted by Big
once the economy starting a popping once again
Please elaborate what happens to oil prices once this happens?
Nobody can predict the price of oil. Oil was $10 a barrel in 1998 at the end of the Asian Contagion. Oil was cheap in the 60s and early 70s, expensive in the mid 70s to early 80s, moderated and decreased from 1982 until 2005. Since 2005 it has surged to levels not thought possible. With the exception of a burp or two in the economy, is has grown each year. It may not grow much this year or next. We'll see.
I disagree. Oil is a finite resource and has basically peaked. The 70s oil crisis was due to a sudden supply disruption. That is not occurring right now. There is no end in sight to the recent increases that we've seen because there is little if any spare capacity. It will take several years of investments to increase oil production. Meanwhile, the existing fields are producing less and less each year. As a result, the best we can hope for is to maintain what we have produced. Couple that with skyrocketing demand from China, India, etc., our way of life is about to change significantly in the next decade. Much more than it did between 1997 and 2007.
If you are very concerned about your standard of living, the sky may be falling. For those of us less materialistic and prepared, it is OK. I'll admit that I'm a little insecure about it, but I'm taking measures to prepare myself. If you do the research, you'll see that this trend will continue for a while - until we hit a breaking point such as China starting to use less oil. By the time that happens, we'll have cut back 50% or so and be living a different life style.
BTW, for my new job, I will be living walking distance from work - about 1/4 mile. These are the types of changes that people will have to make in the future. For me, the future is now. The best thing to do is hit reality head on instead of simply hoping that somebody is going to come along and drill more oil for you.
PeakOilSchmeekSchmoil. Man, I thought I was negative sometimes.
BTW -- there is no evidence that oil is finite. Remember, somehow it was made and there is no evidence that the earth has stopped producing it. The recent Brazilian find underneath 5,500 feet of water, 6,000 feet of rock, and 9,000 feet of salt is casting doubt on previous theories about how and why oil is formed. Why would you think that suddenly the earth has stopped producing oil? We haven't scratched the surface of the earth yet regarding oil exploration. Remember, so much is off-limits at the current time.
Originally Posted by redviking
I disagree. Oil is a finite resource and has basically peaked. The 70s oil crisis was due to a sudden supply disruption. That is not occurring right now. There is no end in sight to the recent increases that we've seen because there is little if any spare capacity. It will take several years of investments to increase oil production. Meanwhile, the existing fields are producing less and less each year. As a result, the best we can hope for is to maintain what we have produced. Couple that with skyrocketing demand from China, India, etc., our way of life is about to change significantly in the next decade. Much more than it did between 1997 and 2007.
Oil has doubled (in less than 18-months) under the diminutive Grandma Pelosi and her heroic leadership. Doubled. Paid and incurred under the Grandma's leadership with her majority.
The little Grandma invented the phrase 'drill drill drill' which is odd because she will not allow drilling.
Originally Posted by Big
All I know is that the price at the pump has quadrupled under Bush and rising. I will believe more oil is out there when I see a drop at the pump.
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