Obama: Offshore drilling will not lower gas prices this year, next year or 5 years from now

Cyclone85 · 07-05-2008, 01:17 PM

That number is BS and everyone knows it. I don't care if Bush's uneducated Bureau Chiefs did say it would be pennies. Why would you believe in Bush's cronies on that issue if you don't agree with his cronies on anything else? You have no credibility when you pick and choose what to believe from Bush. Nobody can predict the price of oil and gas, however, we do know through 200-years of empirical evidence that increasing the supply of something will ultimately reduce prices. Are you kidding me? If we get a 200-mile battery and people start gravitating towards it over a 10-year period, you don't think oil would go down? It's the fundamental tenet of a free market.....

Current polls indicate that energy,energy prices, domestic drilling, and foreign dependence are the #1 priorities of Americans. (More so than health care, the economy, and food prices). The tide is turning and the no-drill Repubs and Dems might get thrown out someday. It just depends on if we get $200 oil and $7 gas would could easily happen with one or two bad things happening, i.e., hurricane, Iran, etc.......

There is no freedom in this country if it takes $1,000 / month to fill your cars. And we have no economic future if oil doubles or triples from here as 90% of Americans' discretionary income will go to utilities, fuel, and food. The economy will tank as will the rest of the world's which has even less discretionary income than us.

Originally Posted by FloggingSully

Ya, gas would be $4.10 and rising instead of $4.15 and rising! I can't believe we missed out on such a golden opportunity.

Maybe if the republicans could have gotten their act together in the 6 years they controlled the legislative and executive branches, we'd all be saving a dollar every time we filled up now.

FloggingSully · 07-05-2008, 01:58 PM

"That number is BS and everyone knows it. I don't care if Bush's uneducated Bureau Chiefs did say it would be pennies. Why would you believe in Bush's cronies on that issue if you don't agree with his cronies on anything else? You have no credibility when you pick and choose what to believe from Bush."
-If everyone knows the number is wrong, there should be tons of reliable sources saying so. I've asked you to find one of these sources several times thoughout these discussions and you haven't been able to.
-I don't believe anything just because Bush says so. I only pointed out that even he (who supports drilling in ANWR and offshore) doens't think it'll have a large affect on prices.
-The reports I've heard (not from Bush) say that peak production from ANWR could yield a million barrels per day (if you have a better/different estimate I'd love to hear it) and if worldwide supply is around 80 million (again, if you have a better number I'd love to hear it). This 1 million barrel increase in supply would therefore increase world supply by around 1%, if oil had a normal elasticity of demand that would cause a 1% decrease in price (assuming demand says constant). However, oil has an inelastic demand and demand is increasing, so that 1% decrease in price is likley a huge overestimate.

"Nobody can predict the price of oil and gas, however, we do know through 200-years of empirical evidence that increasing the supply of something will ultimately reduce prices"
-Who said increasing the supply wouldn't lead to decreased prices? I understand how economics work. My point is that we don't have the capacity to increase supplies enough to have a meaningfull effect on prices (i.e. we can't increase supply enough to drop the price more than a few cents/gallon)

"If we get a 200-mile battery and people start gravitating towards it over a 10-year period, you don't think oil would go down? It's the fundamental tenet of a free market....."
-Yes, if we (we as in the worlds population) use less gas prices would go down. Is someone arguing this point? Seems like a no brainer to me.

"Current polls indicate that energy,energy prices, domestic drilling, and foreign dependence are the #1 priorities of Americans. (More so than health care, the economy, and food prices). The tide is turning and the no-drill Repubs and Dems might get thrown out someday. It just depends on if we get $200 oil and $7 gas would could easily happen with one or two bad things happening, i.e., hurricane, Iran, etc......."
-No argument here. Prices are high, people are hurting, politicians who want to open up more drilling will probably get elected. I realize all this, but it doesn't change the fact we can open up every square inch of the US and it's offshore areas tomorrow and prices will keep going up. More drilling isn't going to rid us of our energy problems.
-I do disagree with you about the $200 oil and $7 gas, I don't think anything bad would have to happen for those prices to be realized, continueing on the current path (even with increased drilling) will be enough for those prices to happen.

"There is no freedom in this country if it takes $1,000 / month to fill your cars. And we have no economic future if oil doubles or triples from here as 90% of Americans' discretionary income will go to utilities, fuel, and food. The economy will tank as will the rest of the world's which has even less discretionary income than us."
-No freedom, really? I didn't realize people had to drive everywhere. Oil prices have shot up before and people adapted. High prices for certain goods is great incentive to develop alternatives to those goods, it's happened in the past and it'll happen again.

Cyclone85 · 07-05-2008, 02:17 PM

1. There is no right or wrong on the price estimate; I said the number was BS and there is a difference. There is no magical formula about it as if some Bureau Chief with black glasses has to approve it, however, you're denying the fundamental tenet of S&D of a free market. There are no sources that can predict, however, by keeping your no-drill mentality, I'm pretty sure prices are going to keep going up. That Bush doesn't think 1M barrels a day would do anything shows how out of touch he is.

2. I'm not limiting myself to ANWR; that is just one source. I'm talking about all domestic drilling, outer continental shelf, and any other place there is thought to be natural gas and oil. We have no spare capacity with the no-drill ecofreaks and this is what we have today; a 1,350% increase in oil. Thank you very much.

3. You think people will be free on $7, $9, and $10 gas if the average family of 4 knocks down $48,000 *before* taxes? They will be prisoners of their own home where family members and loved ones are never visited. Nice freedom. All discretionary income going to food, utilities, and fuel. Sickening. That's not freedom and that's not America; I want nothing to do with that version and I'm confident >90% of people agree with me.

Originally Posted by FloggingSully

-If everyone knows the number is wrong, there should be tons of reliable sources saying so. I've asked you to find one of these sources several times thoughout these discussions and you haven't been able to.
-I don't believe anything just because Bush says so. I only pointed out that even he (who supports drilling in ANWR and offshore) does't think it'll have a large affect on prices.
-The reports I've heard (not from Bush) say that peak production from ANWR could yield a million barrels per day (if you have a better/different estimate I'd love to hear it) and if worldwide supply is around 80 million (again, if you have a better number I'd love to hear it). This 1 million barrel increase in supply would therefore increase world supply by around 1%, if oil had a normal elasticity of demand that would cause a 1% decrease in price (assuming demand says constant). However, oil has an inelastic demand and demand is increasing, so that 1% decrease in price is likley a huge overestimate.

-Who said increasing the supply wouldn't lead to decreased prices? I understand how economics work. My point is that we don't have the capacity to increase supplies enough to have a meaningfull effect on prices (i.e. we can't increase supply enough to drop the price more than a few cents/gallon)

-Yes, if we (we as in the worlds population) use less gas prices would go down. Is someone arguing this point? Seems like a no brainer to me.

-No argument here. Prices are high, people are hurting, politicians who want to open up more drilling will probably get elected. I realize all this, but it doesn't change the fact we can open up every square inch of the US and it's offshore areas tomorrow and prices will keep going up. More drilling isn't going to rid us of our energy problems.
-I do disagree with you about the $200 oil and $7 gas, I don't think anything bad would have to happen for those prices to be realized, continueing on the current path (even with increased drilling) will be enough for those prices to happen.

-No freedom, really? I didn't realize people had to drive everywhere. Oil prices have shot up before and people adapted. High prices for certain goods is great incentive to develop alternatives to those goods, it's happened in the past and it'll happen again.

FloggingSully · 07-05-2008, 04:53 PM

"There is no right or wrong on the price estimate; I said the number was BS and there is a difference. There is no magical formula about it as if some Bureau Chief with black glasses has to approve it, however, you're denying the fundamental tenet of S&D of a free market. There are no sources that can predict, however, by keeping your no-drill mentality, I'm pretty sure prices are going to keep going up. That Bush doesn't think 1M barrels a day would do anything shows how out of touch he is."
-What's the difference between an estimate being wrong and it being BS? There is no magic formula but there are good estimates that can be determined by using fundamental economics. I've explained my reasoning and I think most economists would agree with me, all you've said is "you're wrong, no one knows the answer, but your still wrong."
-What the fuck are you talking about that I ignore the fundamental tenents of supply and demand? I've said over and over that if you increase supply the price will fall (assuming consistent demand). My point as always been that we don't have the capacity to increase supply enough to have a meaningful effect on price, what tenent of S&D does this ignore?

"I'm not limiting myself to ANWR; that is just one source. I'm talking about all domestic drilling, outer continental shelf, and any other place there is thought to be natural gas and oil. We have no spare capacity with the no-drill ecofreaks and this is what we have today; a 1,350% increase in oil. Thank you very much."
-Like I said in my last post, you can drill on every square inch of the US and all the offshore areas you want, we don't have the capacity to increase supply enough to have a meaningful affect on price. Can you provide any sources that say otherwise?
-I honestly could care less if we increase drilling or not. By the time any of the oil from these new drilling endevors (except for ANWR, but we've covered the affects of drilling in ANWR at length already) comes online gas will be so expensive that we'll have moved on anyway.

"You think people will be free on $7, $9, and $10 gas if the average family of 4 knocks down $48,000 *before* taxes? They will be prisoners of their own home where family members and loved ones are never visited. Nice freedom. All discretionary income going to food, utilities, and fuel. Sickening. That's not freedom and that's not America; I want nothing to do with that version and I'm confident >90% of people agree with me"
-Will people still be free? of course they will, no one has to buy gas in this country. Gas prices have shot up before in this country and what happened? People bought more efficient cars, they moved closer to work, etc. The same thing is happening now. No where in any law that I'm aware of does it say that anyone in the US has the right to or is entitled to cheap gas. Oil could be $1000/barrel and people in the US would still have all the same freedoms that they do now.

hardcore · 07-05-2008, 06:52 PM

"You think people will be free on $7, $9, and $10 gas if the average family of 4 knocks down $48,000 *before* taxes? They will be prisoners of their own home where family members and loved ones are never visited. Nice freedom. All discretionary income going to food, utilities, and fuel. Sickening. That's not freedom and that's not America; I want nothing to do with that version and I'm confident >90% of people agree with me"

This quote got me thinking. Cheap gas and inexpensive cars have over the course of a couple of generations changed the fabric of American life and who we are. If we go back just 100 years ago multi-generations living under one roof was the norm. If one wanted to leave the nest and spread ones wings it was usually to a home within walking distance of the rest of your family. Family was tight and always came first followed closely by friends, neighbors, and community. We did not have the government trying to take care of those who could not take care of themselves because that is what family was for. For thoses without family, friends and neighbors were their safety net. By todays standards thoses times were hard but the people were strong and found a way to solve their daily problems. Had the great depression not hit I believe that much of what was good about multi-generational family units would have survived through to today.

Will higher prices hurt many that can least afford it ? Yes. Will continued higher prices change the way we travel, the way we shop, have us rethink the suburbs in favor of the city living? Yes, yes, and yes IMO. Can this cloud have a silver lining? I think so. I have one son who is 18 and we have already discussed him staying as long as he wants. We have also discussed with both my parents and my wifes parents the option of living with us if the need arises. We have the room and an in-law apartment already built. Instead of gloom and doom perhaps it is simply time to re-think what works and what we hold to be most dear. I have faith in our ability to do what needs to be done. The current generations have yet to be tested like thoses that came before them but when push comes to shove they will stand up and do what needs to be done. It is what has made our country special in the face of adveristy and that spirt is still there. People just need to stop focusing on how bad things are and instead focus on how good things can be.

Cyclone85 · 07-05-2008, 07:19 PM

Flog wrote: -What the fuck are you talking about that I ignore the fundamental tenents of supply and demand? I've said over and over that if you increase supply the price will fall (assuming consistent demand). My point as always been that we don't have the capacity to increase supply enough to have a meaningful effect on price, what tenent of S&D does this ignore?

Because you're quoting that number (5-cents or whatever it is) over and over as if you received it via divine intervention. Hogwash. Nobody knows what it would do to the market, however, I sure as *HECK* want to try because you and I will be burning oil and gas until we're both dead. The people that make your life easy, i.e., those that provide energy to you are telling us that we have the spare capacity but there are impossible obstacles (even laws) that prevent them from getting it. What self-respecting country does that to itself, other than the U.S.? (Plus -- it's a national security risk of the highest order!!!) I will take the word of the energy companies (that are the most important companies on earth) over yours, any beady eyed legislator with a mail-order law degree, and no-drill dunces like ArnoldS, any Kennedy, and BBoxer.com.

I know the people that I hang with, and we all agree that you're not free if you can't go anywhere.

And finally -- why swear? Look at the charitable reply of Hardcore. Now that is a respectful reply that will make me think.

Originally Posted by FloggingSully

"There is no right or wrong on the price estimate; I said the number was BS and there is a difference. There is no magical formula about it as if some Bureau Chief with black glasses has to approve it, however, you're denying the fundamental tenet of S&D of a free market. There are no sources that can predict, however, by keeping your no-drill mentality, I'm pretty sure prices are going to keep going up. That Bush doesn't think 1M barrels a day would do anything shows how out of touch he is."
-What's the difference between an estimate being wrong and it being BS? There is no magic formula but there are good estimates that can be determined by using fundamental economics. I've explained my reasoning and I think most economists would agree with me, all you've said is "you're wrong, no one knows the answer, but your still wrong."
-What the fuck are you talking about that I ignore the fundamental tenents of supply and demand? I've said over and over that if you increase supply the price will fall (assuming consistent demand). My point as always been that we don't have the capacity to increase supply enough to have a meaningful effect on price, what tenent of S&D does this ignore?

"I'm not limiting myself to ANWR; that is just one source. I'm talking about all domestic drilling, outer continental shelf, and any other place there is thought to be natural gas and oil. We have no spare capacity with the no-drill ecofreaks and this is what we have today; a 1,350% increase in oil. Thank you very much."
-Like I said in my last post, you can drill on every square inch of the US and all the offshore areas you want, we don't have the capacity to increase supply enough to have a meaningful affect on price. Can you provide any sources that say otherwise?
-I honestly could care less if we increase drilling or not. By the time any of the oil from these new drilling endevors (except for ANWR, but we've covered the affects of drilling in ANWR at length already) comes online gas will be so expensive that we'll have moved on anyway.

"You think people will be free on $7, $9, and $10 gas if the average family of 4 knocks down $48,000 *before* taxes? They will be prisoners of their own home where family members and loved ones are never visited. Nice freedom. All discretionary income going to food, utilities, and fuel. Sickening. That's not freedom and that's not America; I want nothing to do with that version and I'm confident >90% of people agree with me"
-Will people still be free? of course they will, no one has to buy gas in this country. Gas prices have shot up before in this country and what happened? People bought more efficient cars, they moved closer to work, etc. The same thing is happening now. No where in any law that I'm aware of does it say that anyone in the US has the right to or is entitled to cheap gas. Oil could be $1000/barrel and people in the US would still have all the same freedoms that they do now.

Cyclone85 · 07-05-2008, 09:00 PM

Hardcore -- genius reply. Thought provoking.....

Originally Posted by hardcore

"You think people will be free on $7, $9, and $10 gas if the average family of 4 knocks down $48,000 *before* taxes? They will be prisoners of their own home where family members and loved ones are never visited. Nice freedom. All discretionary income going to food, utilities, and fuel. Sickening. That's not freedom and that's not America; I want nothing to do with that version and I'm confident >90% of people agree with me"

This quote got me thinking. Cheap gas and inexpensive cars have over the course of a couple of generations changed the fabric of American life and who we are. If we go back just 100 years ago multi-generations living under one roof was the norm. If one wanted to leave the nest and spread ones wings it was usually to a home within walking distance of the rest of your family. Family was tight and always came first followed closely by friends, neighbors, and community. We did not have the government trying to take care of those who could not take care of themselves because that is what family was for. For thoses without family, friends and neighbors were their safety net. By todays standards thoses times were hard but the people were strong and found a way to solve their daily problems. Had the great depression not hit I believe that much of what was good about multi-generational family units would have survived through to today.

Will higher prices hurt many that can least afford it ? Yes. Will continued higher prices change the way we travel, the way we shop, have us rethink the suburbs in favor of the city living? Yes, yes, and yes IMO. Can this cloud have a silver lining? I think so. I have one son who is 18 and we have already discussed him staying as long as he wants. We have also discussed with both my parents and my wifes parents the option of living with us if the need arises. We have the room and an in-law apartment already built. Instead of gloom and doom perhaps it is simply time to re-think what works and what we hold to be most dear. I have faith in our ability to do what needs to be done. The current generations have yet to be tested like thoses that came before them but when push comes to shove they will stand up and do what needs to be done. It is what has made our country special in the face of adveristy and that spirt is still there. People just need to stop focusing on how bad things are and instead focus on how good things can be.

redviking · 07-05-2008, 09:21 PM

I actually agree. It will lower it a little bit, of course, but not significantly. The only thing that will significantly lower prices is reduced demand. We have basically hit peak oil. This doesn't mean that our society as we know it can't survive, but rather that we will need to move to alternative energies very aggressively in order to do so. If anybody doesn't believe in peak oil (that we're there), let me know and I can explain. I've been researching this almost every day for several months now (since March 2008).

Cyclone85 · 07-05-2008, 10:50 PM

Well, there have been thousands studying this for decades and there are a goodly proportion that do not believe the theory anymore than man-made global warming. Peak oil is only a theory.......

Again, we've only scratched the surface of the earth so far. If you lined up *all* of the oil rigs ever made in the ocean (in a square), and then viewed the ocean from high up....all you see is ocean and no rigs. The rigs represent the head of a pin.

Originally Posted by redviking

I actually agree. It will lower it a little bit, of course, but not significantly. The only thing that will significantly lower prices is reduced demand. We have basically hit peak oil. This doesn't mean that our society as we know it can't survive, but rather that we will need to move to alternative energies very aggressively in order to do so. If anybody doesn't believe in peak oil (that we're there), let me know and I can explain. I've been researching this almost every day for several months now (since March 2008).

redviking · 07-06-2008, 08:22 AM

Drilling more will only delay the inevitable. Eventually we will have to move to alternative energies. I think that most of the oil that we drill should be utilized to construct solar panels, wind turbines, nuclear power plants, etc.

Obama: Offshore drilling will not lower gas prices this year, next year or 5 years from now

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