There is a good explanation as to why McCain is the leader for Republican nomination
He had the least amount of money for his campaign. Michael Moore was talking on Larry King last night and he said many Republicans are upset with Wall Street due to mortgage crisis and stuff so these voters are backing the candidate with least ties to Wall Street, aka McCain.
In other words, McCain's success is more of a rejection of money in politics than anything. I expect a resounding defeat for McCain in the general election. I suspect he will not get more than 35% of the votes from total in the general election.