I really didn't want to bet you, but I will if I get clarification on what exactly the bet on unemployment is. If it is that it has been dropping since January of 2009, then that must mean that it is lower today than it was then and hasn't risen and fell, correct? You said it has been dropping, so I assume that means it's lower now and never went up since then. If that is the bet, then you are on.
Oh, and I will be using the data on the government's own website. I assume you trust that. Or will you weasel out of it as I predicted?