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    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    Zbigniew Brzezinski on Iran

    TRNN REPLAY Zbigniew Brzezinski: An Israeli attack on Iran would be a disaster

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    Bio

    Zbigniew Brzezinski Zbigniew Brzezinski is a CSIS counselor and trustee and cochairs the CSIS Advisory Board. He is also the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, D.C. He is cochair of the American Committee for Peace in the Caucasus and is a former chairman of the American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee. He is also a member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council. He was a member of the Policy Planning Council of the Department of State from 1966 to 1968; chairman of the Humphrey Foreign Policy Task Force in the 1968 presidential campaign; director of the Trilateral Commission from 1973 to 1976; and principal foreign policy adviser to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential campaign. From 1977 to 1981, Dr. Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in the normalization of U.S.-China relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He was also a member of the President�s Chemical Warfare Commission (1985), the National Security Council�Defense Department Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy (1987�1988), and the President�s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (1987�1989). In 1988, he was cochairman of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force, and in 2004, he was cochairman of a Council on Foreign Relations task force that issued the report Iran: Time for a New Approach. Dr. Brzezinski received a B.A. and M.A. from McGill University (1949, 1950) and Ph.D. from Harvard University (1953). He was a member of the faculties of Columbia University (1960�1989) and Harvard University (1953�1960). Dr. Brzezinski holds honorary degrees from Georgetown University, Williams College, Fordham University, College of the Holy Cross, Alliance College, the Catholic University of Lublin, Warsaw University, and Vilnius University. He is the recipient of numerous honors and awards. His many books include America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy (Basic Books, 2008), coauthored with Brent Scowcroft and David Ignatius; Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower (Basic Books, 2007); The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership (Basic Books, 2004); The Geostrategic Triad: Living with China, Europe, and Russia (CSIS, 2001); The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (Basic Books, 1997); and The Grand Failure: The Birth and Death of Communism in the 20th Century (Scribners, 1989).



    Transcript

    TRANSCRIPT
    Zbigniew Brzezinski Interview Part 3PAUL JAY (Intro): In 1979, when the Irian revolution overthrew the American allied Shah, Zbigniew Brzezinski was National Security advisor to President Jimmy Carter. Thirty years later, Iran is still a central challenge facing US geo-political strategy. In the third segment of my interview with Dr. Brzezinski, I asked him about Israel�s threat to bomb Iranian Nuclear facilities and the American strategy towards Iran. I started by asking Dr. Brzezinski about an interview he gave last September to the website the daily beast. In that interview, Dr. Brzezinski was asked: How aggressive can Obama be in insisting to the Israelis that a military strike might be in America�s worst interest? HE answered: "We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch?He was then asked: "What if they fly over anyway? Well, we have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren�t just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not.I sat down with Dr. Brzezinski at the Center for Strategic Studies in Washington DC. where he is a counselor and trustee.__________________________JAY: Talk about American strategy towards Iran. And it's fairly well known you had a bit of a falling-out with President Obama on this. You were talking about opposing any potential Israeli attack on Iran. You weren't the only [inaudible]BRZEZINSKI: No, I wasn't saying "opposing". I was saying that we should not let them use our airspace without our permission, because no matter what, we would be held as complicit, and we will be paying the price for it. So our view is that this is not desirable; we should not allow our airspace to be used. If we want it to be used, fine, but let's be clear about it: it's not a good idea to stumble into a war regarding which you're ambivalent. That decision has to be made with open eyes. But my view on Iran is that we have to be patient, and that deterrence can work. We don't need to increase the scale of the conflict in the region that we have been discussing, because an increase in that conflict involving the Iranians in a collision with us would make our task in Afghanistan absolutely impossible. It would probably reignite the conflict in Iraq, would set the Persian Gulf ablaze, would increase the price of oil twofold, threefold, fourfold, and Americans will be paying five, six dollars a gallon at the gas stations. Europe will become even more dependent on the Soviet Union for energy. So what is the benefit to us?JAY: The people advocating this more militaristic approach, I have to ask, do you think they mean it? Or is this good cop, bad cop?BRZEZINSKI: I'm not a mind reader. I don't know.JAY: [inaudible] Pandora's box this would open boggles the mind.BRZEZINSKI: Well, I would think any reasonable person would conclude that, and I think the United States is not in favor of the war, and that's why we're doing what we can in Geneva.JAY: Is Israel serious in these threats?BRZEZINSKI: I have no idea. I have no idea. All I know is, as an analyst of international politics, that this would be a disaster. And, frankly, I think that it'll be a disaster for us more than for Israel�more than for Israel in the short run, and a fundamental disaster for Israel in the long run, because if the consequence of that is that in the end we are forced out of the region, as we might be because almost sort of dynamic hatred that develops�and have no illusions about it, the conflict spreads, we're going to be alone. The Russians are not going to be with us. They're not suckers. The Europeans are not going to be with us. They don't like to be in the forefront of conflict for historic reasons. We are going to be engaged. And if we are finally driven out, how much would you bet on the survival of Israel for more than five to ten years after all that has happened? So, you know, some people who criticize me for being straightforward on this think this is an anti-Israeli point of view. You know, they're entitled to their demagogy. But my view is it'll be a geopolitical disaster for us in the short run, and to the extent that Israelis are concerned about it, for themselves.JAY: The pressure that's being put on Iran is pushing Iran closer to Russia and China.BRZEZINSKI: No, it's not pushing them close to Russia or China. We're pushing the Chinese and the Russians to engage in a more direct conflict with the Iranians, but they're reluctant because they have a different view on the situation. And in a different way, each has different interests.JAY: But Russia and China are both getting much more involved in the Iranian economy [inaudible] Shanghai Cooperation Agreement meetings.BRZEZINSKI: No, no, no, no. Wait a second. Wait a second. The Chinese are getting more involved in Iranian economy 'cause they need energy, and they're not going to be particularly grateful if we produce a conflict in the region. And that will also affect them. And what consequences that might have for the world economy is hard to predict. All I'm saying is don't trifle with the silly notion, oh, we'll just bomb them and the problem is solved. It's a false analogy, and historically it's one fundamental lesson we shouldn't forget: Stalin and the Soviet Union was more of a threat than Iran ever will be, and yet we deterred it. Mao Zedong talked of a nuclear war which might kill 300 million people, and so what [inaudible] we didn't have a war with the Chinese. Why should we act like crazies in dealing with Iran?JAY: Thanks very much.BRZEZINSKI: Thank you very much.JAY: Thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.
    You know, I think I would rather be a man than a god . We don't need anyone to believe in us. We just keep going anyhow. It's what we do.

  2. #2

    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    It's hard to say. Osirak worked out pretty well, and in retrospect the Israelis were correct in a pre-emptive strike.

    I guess the Israelis also have the option of waiting for Iran to nuke them first, and then they could counter-attack with whatever they could cobble together.

    Also, Brzezinski repeats the canard that the United States (or by his extension, Israel) acting in our own best interests should be counterbalanced by whether the Chinese, Russians, and the Europeans agree with us. Even when we have a "coalition of the willing" we're the ones who provide the blood and bullets.

  3. #3

    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    Probably not your favorite news source, but they do give you a different take on politics- Al Jazeera ran a story about the politics of Iran and made this conclusion:

    The embargo actually fostered the growth of an internal economy in Iran and a new class of Iranian merchants and small manufacturers.
    It hurt the regime of Mahmoud A, because of macro economic concerns.
    This forced Iran to look to China, and China to Iran for energy.
    The new dumping of Chinese goods in Iran that came along with pipeline investment has outraged many of the new manufacturers and merchants and is causing domestic political problems for Mahmoud.
    He is now in a box- he is increasingly attached to China to maintain power, and Iranians are increasingly resentful.
    He needs to provoke US or Israel to deflect Iranian domestic attention away from his ties with China.
    As new technology appears to be opening new oil reserves in many parts of the world (Canada, South China Sea, Arctic) should we play along with him?

    I agree with ZB, and others that have argued against playing along. There is very little to achieve except giving a vulnerable leader who is growing more vulnerable by his own actions a rallying point for his very cosmopolitan nation of people (meaning they are not of one mind- Iran the people is a diverse mix of fundamentalists, but also liberal minded pro westerners, liberal minded pro-Chinese and a whole range of other things.) Have a little faith that they will get things sorted out themselves, there is growing evidence that they are on the verge- and what we are seeing is not the growing ambitions and strength of M.A, but the death throes of a regime that is collapsing from within.

    At the very least, once China has enough invested in the country the Iranians won't be running it on their own any way. Frankly, I would prefer an independent secular-republican Iran, but if given a choice between Iran ruled by MA and fundementalists, or Iran ruled by China, I would pick Iran ruled by China.

    Let them evolve with out our making us their enemy.

    If they become a colony of China, do you think Americans will put "Free Iran" stickers on their cars?
    Last edited by NYGriffin; 02-09-2012 at 01:00 PM.

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    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    ZB is completely NWO. I haven't listened to this but in my mind I would do the opposite of whatever this guy is saying just on general principle.

    But if anyone remembers MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) that worked between the USA & USSR for some many years, it seems to me that the same thing is playing out in the Middle East.

  5. #5

    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by kr1963 View Post
    ZB is completely NWO. I haven't listened to this but in my mind I would do the opposite of whatever this guy is saying just on general principle.

    But if anyone remembers MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) that worked between the USA & USSR for some many years, it seems to me that the same thing is playing out in the Middle East.

    Remember MAD was created under Nixon/Kissinger, who argued it would work because the USSR was not a revolutionary power bent on world domination, but just another country with its own interests in the world- they were for a status quo. MAD for example, would not have worked on Hitler or Napoleon or Ferdinand II, according to Kissinger, because they were revolutionary.

    I think Iran falls into the category of status quo, and not revolutionary so I would agree- MAD between Israel and Iran might be a good thing, perhaps also if you threw in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey too? Seems like a Jewish bomb and a Shi'ia bomb would have to be balanced by a Sunni bomb or two.

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    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    ZB was fired under Carter's administration as he was NOT a member of the CFR- guess he sold out .
    You know, I think I would rather be a man than a god . We don't need anyone to believe in us. We just keep going anyhow. It's what we do.

  7. #7
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    Funny he is all over the CFR website as well the Tri-Ls

  8. #8
    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: the REAL NEWS and war with Iran

    Quote Originally Posted by kr1963 View Post
    Funny he is all over the CFR website as well the Tri-Ls
    That is what i meant when i said he must have sold out. If you can't beat them , join them.
    You know, I think I would rather be a man than a god . We don't need anyone to believe in us. We just keep going anyhow. It's what we do.

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