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Thread: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

  1. #10

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Carter did not handle the economy well, but he did some things right that he rarely gets fair credit for. But that's a side topic. Sticking to facts, there is no objective way that one can criticize Obama for jobs while praising Reagan. Obama clearly out-performed Reagan when comparing similar time periods.

  2. #11
    Olympic Champ RYou's Avatar
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    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Disagree again.

    In the early 80's, the snowball was just starting downhill when Reagan was elected.

    In the late 00's, the snowball was already off the mountain when Obama was elected, damage was done

    There is a huge difference in how federal investment was handled in both situations. Reagan invested in the defense department, buying and building equipment which had a huge trickle down from the large defense department contractors to the mom and pops business.

    Obama is investing in road construction. He just put up another $50,000,000,000 for National Highway Authority contracts. Everywhere you go now you're in traffic due to lane closure, if not entire road closures. Those projects are not as labor intensive, they're material intensive. Construction looks for a 33% margin (1/3 labor, 1/3 materials (tar, stone, concrete) and 1/3 profit. The DOD vertical linkage takes a 15% margin and the alignment of contractor to subcontractor is far lengthier. For road repair, the vertical is mine to mill to paver, very shallow. It doesn't put as many people back to work as you may think and it benefits only a few trades.

    Now don't think the bank buyouts and handouts to GM and Chrysler were Obama's idea, that was all put in place before the election. I will give him credit Cash for Clunkers though, he pulled the trigger though the idea was on the table before the election. All that did was help MOtor City replay some of that government cash.

    The latest documentation on the employment benefits of the TARP program amounts to 92,000 jobs. In terms of the total loss of employment, that number of jobs saved is negligible.

    Personally, I think we would have been a whole lot better off if Obama just ordered Fannie and Freddie to rewrite all of those variable rate loans that are causing the foreclosures into fixed loans at the 4-4.5% they were initially written at. There'd be far fewer foreclosures, housing values would have stabilized sooner and you wouldn't have so many walking from investment real estate that is now underwater loan wise. Heck you can get 30 mortgages now at 4-4.5%, who would the mortgage rewrite have hurt?
    Life's not the breaths you take, the breathing in and out that gets you through the day ain't what it's all about. It's the moments that take your breath away.

  3. #12

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Income tax rates for the highest tax bracket is another stat that favors Obama vs Reagen.


    http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfa....cfm?Docid=213

  4. #13

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ground&Pound View Post
    Income tax rates for the highest tax bracket is another stat that favors Obama vs Reagen.

    [/IMG]
    How so? Obama inherited low rates but he is going to raise them. Reagan inherited high rates and he lowered them.

  5. #14

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Quote Originally Posted by RYou View Post
    Disagree again.

    In the early 80's, the snowball was just starting downhill when Reagan was elected.

    In the late 00's, the snowball was already off the mountain when Obama was elected, damage was done

    There is a huge difference in how federal investment was handled in both situations. Reagan invested in the defense department, buying and building equipment which had a huge trickle down from the large defense department contractors to the mom and pops business.

    Obama is investing in road construction. He just put up another $50,000,000,000 for National Highway Authority contracts. Everywhere you go now you're in traffic due to lane closure, if not entire road closures. Those projects are not as labor intensive, they're material intensive. Construction looks for a 33% margin (1/3 labor, 1/3 materials (tar, stone, concrete) and 1/3 profit. The DOD vertical linkage takes a 15% margin and the alignment of contractor to subcontractor is far lengthier. For road repair, the vertical is mine to mill to paver, very shallow. It doesn't put as many people back to work as you may think and it benefits only a few trades.

    Now don't think the bank buyouts and handouts to GM and Chrysler were Obama's idea, that was all put in place before the election. I will give him credit Cash for Clunkers though, he pulled the trigger though the idea was on the table before the election. All that did was help MOtor City replay some of that government cash.

    The latest documentation on the employment benefits of the TARP program amounts to 92,000 jobs. In terms of the total loss of employment, that number of jobs saved is negligible.

    Personally, I think we would have been a whole lot better off if Obama just ordered Fannie and Freddie to rewrite all of those variable rate loans that are causing the foreclosures into fixed loans at the 4-4.5% they were initially written at. There'd be far fewer foreclosures, housing values would have stabilized sooner and you wouldn't have so many walking from investment real estate that is now underwater loan wise. Heck you can get 30 mortgages now at 4-4.5%, who would the mortgage rewrite have hurt?
    You can disagree with how Obama spent the money and you can present data of your choice to argue that bailouts saved less jobs than what all the economists claim, but that does not change the fact which is the subject of this thread: the increase in unemployment was worse under Reagan than Obama. That is an undeniable fact.

  6. #15

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Quote Originally Posted by Ground&Pound View Post
    Income tax rates for the highest tax bracket is another stat that favors Obama vs Reagen.
    Notice the huge drop in top marginal tax rate in 1982, from 69.13% to 50%. That was a consequence of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Notice also that despite that huge tax cut, unemployment increased a huge amount that year, as the chart shows. As I said before, there is no evidence that Reagan's tax cuts created jobs in the short term. It took 16 months from Reagan's tax cuts before unemployment started to decline. There is absolutely no logical way that one can criticize Obama and at the same time praise Reagan when it comes to jobs. If one wants to criticize him, then they have to give him at least as much time as it took Reagan to turn around the situation, which is 2 years from the start of his presidency. Fortunately, the turnaround seems to already be in progress in less than 2 years.
    Last edited by TheEvilDrEvil; 10-16-2010 at 04:47 AM.

  7. #16
    Olympic Champ RYou's Avatar
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    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Quote Originally Posted by TheEvilDrEvil View Post
    Notice the huge drop in top marginal tax rate in 1982, from 69.13% to 50%. That was a consequence of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Notice also that despite that huge tax cut, unemployment increased a huge amount that year, as the chart shows. As I said before, there is no evidence that Reagan's tax cuts created jobs in the short term. It took 16 months from Reagan's tax cuts before unemployment started to decline. There is absolutely no logical way that one can criticize Obama and at the same time praise Reagan when it comes to jobs. If one wants to criticize him, then they have to give him at least as much time as it took Reagan to turn around the situation, which is 2 years from the start of his presidency. Fortunately, the turnaround seems to already be in progress in less than 2 years.
    After you've a nice fat dinner, do you then go to the bathroom to immediately shit it out? No, it takes time to work through the system, even if it was chili.

    You're right, there were probably a million or so municipal jobs saved by Obama when he dumped another $50,000,000,000 to the states. But that is likely a one time endowment that is covering positions for this fiscal year. If he doesn't lay another $50,000,000,000 on the states come February, every state, municipality, school system, will have to cover that loss of income through budget cuts. Obama only staved off the inevitable by 12 months. Next May, June, July, you'll be reading about a ton more public jobs lost due to budget cuts because the economy has not recovered sufficiently to keep those jobs funded through increases in income, property and sales tax revenue.

    Presidents and the fed can only stimulate the economy a little bit. More so, they can only stem how empty the trough will be before it starts to be refilled.

    Reagan bailed out Chrysler to keep it afloat. This time GM and Chrysler were bailed. The auto industry has too many employment links in it's supply chain to let it go down. There were a ton of reasons AIG had to be kept a float, it was a link in the reinsurance chain that could not be allowed to go belly up. That would have put too much financial pressure on state insurance guaranty funds and lots of businesses and individuals would have lost long term coverage that had already been paid for.

    This economy won't get rolling until consumers start spending and even then half will be headed overseas in Chinese profits versus US business. Consumers won't start spending until the housing market stabilizes. It didn't stabilize under Reagan until he got mortgage rates down to 8%, yea 8% and we're already 4% and change.

    Way back in 2008 the real economists were predicting employment and economic problems until 2014. These were the same guys that were predicting a horrible recession in 2006 and 2007. You know what, they were right and whomever sits in the Whitehouse 2014 will get the credit for it when they had nothing to do with the recovery.

    The best advice you can get right now, buy some property, if you have a reasonably secure job. Take advantage of that low 30 year fixed rate mortgage, because by 2014 interest rates will be back to 6-7% and that same house, while it will not increase in value by 2014, will cost you 50% more per month in cash to finance it. 4-4.5% hasn't been available in 60-70 years, you'll never see that rate again and the price of the property won't be any lower.
    Last edited by RYou; 10-16-2010 at 05:58 AM.
    Life's not the breaths you take, the breathing in and out that gets you through the day ain't what it's all about. It's the moments that take your breath away.

  8. #17

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    I was too young to know what the "buzz" around America was among voters of the Reagan years. I do think I can try to explain why people are so upset with Obama right now, though.

    Obama campaigned on hope and change. He lit a fire under young voters, independant voters and first time voters. All three of these groups wanted change and he promised it. The media then jumped on his bandwagon and either continued to promote his promises or at least kept the fire burning for these groups.

    What Obama failed to say in any campaign speech was that this would take time. I disagree with almost every single policy he stands for, but even I know that it didn't matter who became president, it would take a lot of time to turn the tide. Obama failed miserably in that area of his campaign. The same group of voters who thought things would be changed by now, feel as though they were lied to. I can't blame them. No one could live up to the hype he created world wide.

    Now, it seems, he is blaming instead of changing. Left wingers will always vote democrat, right wingers will always vote republican, so it's the three groups mentioned above that swing an election. Right now, Obama has lost them because they don't want to listen to blame, they want change.

    So, in my opinion, the anger felt in America is in that group and it is the product of Obama's own doing. I think he got a little too full of himself and belived the hype, now he's wishing he was just a candidate instead of a rockstar.

    Now, it seems, the hype is about how he has failed, so far, and the momentum is in the opposite direction. People running for office should be a little more careful on promises, IMO. They always seem to bite you in the ass if they are too big. That goes for either party.

  9. #18

    Default Re: Unemployment: Obama Versus Reagan

    Quote Originally Posted by quinn14 View Post
    I was too young to know what the "buzz" around America was among voters of the Reagan years. I do think I can try to explain why people are so upset with Obama right now, though.

    Obama campaigned on hope and change. He lit a fire under young voters, independant voters and first time voters. All three of these groups wanted change and he promised it. The media then jumped on his bandwagon and either continued to promote his promises or at least kept the fire burning for these groups.

    What Obama failed to say in any campaign speech was that this would take time. I disagree with almost every single policy he stands for, but even I know that it didn't matter who became president, it would take a lot of time to turn the tide. Obama failed miserably in that area of his campaign. The same group of voters who thought things would be changed by now, feel as though they were lied to. I can't blame them. No one could live up to the hype he created world wide.

    Now, it seems, he is blaming instead of changing. Left wingers will always vote democrat, right wingers will always vote republican, so it's the three groups mentioned above that swing an election. Right now, Obama has lost them because they don't want to listen to blame, they want change.

    So, in my opinion, the anger felt in America is in that group and it is the product of Obama's own doing. I think he got a little too full of himself and belived the hype, now he's wishing he was just a candidate instead of a rockstar.

    Now, it seems, the hype is about how he has failed, so far, and the momentum is in the opposite direction. People running for office should be a little more careful on promises, IMO. They always seem to bite you in the ass if they are too big. That goes for either party.
    It's not that Obama didn't warn people that it would take time, it's that the right-wing media in our country has been extremely effective in communicating their view of what Obama has said and done. Before taking office, Obama made it very clear that this recovery would take time:
    http://change.gov/newsroom/entry/your_weekly_address/

    "Now, given the magnitude of the challenges we face, none of this will come easy. Recovery won’t happen overnight, and it’s likely that things will get worse before they get better."

    (Instead of showing this part of the speech, the right-wing media instead only extracts out the one part he got wrong and ignores the rest: the prediction of how bad unemployment would be)
    Last edited by TheEvilDrEvil; 10-16-2010 at 04:36 PM.

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