Electoral vote web sites

ccbig · 10-09-2008, 10:17 AM

There are 2 electoral vote sites I visit fairly often.

As of today http://www.270towin.com/ has the Presidential race this way:

Obama - Biden 264

McCain - Palin 163

Probability of Reaching 270

Obama - Biden > 99%

McCain - Palin < 1%

As of today http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html has the Presidential race this way:

Obama 349

McCain 174

This site also makes predictions on Senate and Congress races. This site sees the seats in the Senate and Congress going this way:

Senate: Dem 57 GOP 42 Ties 1

House: Dem 247 GOP 187 Ties 1

If these trends hold true the Democrats would have a true majority in both houses of Congress and control of the white house.

rustyshackleford · 10-09-2008, 10:19 AM

realclearpolitics.com is also good. It has it 264-163 at the moment. It has nice graphics showing the latest poll changes also.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

BonnieJ2 · 10-09-2008, 10:27 AM

I like the Real Clear Politics map. You can see it in solid red and blue or you can opt to see it with tossups and leaning blue and leaning red states. You can double click on the states and get a link to recent polls to see the percents that they use for their data.

rustyshackleford · 10-09-2008, 12:15 PM

On the RCP site you can also change states for one guy or another, to see how the count would be in different scenarios. There are a lot of cool things about that site. FWIW, they now have Virginia leaning Obama, which puts him at 277 at the moment, by their count.

rustyshackleford · 10-12-2008, 11:56 AM

Here is another very cool site for stuff like this. It was started by one of the guys from Baseball Prospectus, and he uses similar statistical analyses for projecting the presidential outcome as the Sabermetricians use for judging future baseball outcomes. He takes into account poll numbers like the others, but also takes into account historical accuracy of each poll (weighing the more accurate polls in the past heavier than the less accurate,) voting trends such as states that normally vote the same way, and a some other things as well. Using all of this he runs something like a 1000 mock elections to determine the most likely outcome. He has apparently been more accurate than most of the regular polls since he started. Pretty cool stuff.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

sgallan · 10-13-2008, 10:26 AM

Originally Posted by rustyshackleford

Here is another very cool site for stuff like this. It was started by one of the guys from Baseball Prospectus, and he uses similar statistical analyses for projecting the presidential outcome as the Sabermetricians use for judging future baseball outcomes. He takes into account poll numbers like the others, but also takes into account historical accuracy of each poll (weighing the more accurate polls in the past heavier than the less accurate,) voting trends such as states that normally vote the same way, and a some other things as well. Using all of this he runs something like a 1000 mock elections to determine the most likely outcome. He has apparently been more accurate than most of the regular polls since he started. Pretty cool stuff.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

While a little overwhelming at first I like this site a lot.

rustyshackleford · 10-13-2008, 12:34 PM

It is mentioned is this week's SI, and that is the first that I have heard of it. It is very cool, esp if you are a dork who likes numbers, such as myself.

JensenS · 10-13-2008, 03:47 PM

Very cool site.

BonnieJ2 · 10-24-2008, 01:01 PM

Real Clear Politics has Obama ahead in Indiana today. Seems like there weren't any good polls taken in the last few weeks, now three this week all show a drastic change.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-604.html

Electoral vote web sites

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