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Thread: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

  1. #1

    Default "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    I understand why it's important to track some things seasonally (profit/loss for a ski resort, beach resort.. etc), but unemployment adjusted seasonally seems to be a way to make the numbers look better than they are - it certainly doesn't keep those people paying their mortgage.

    If you lose your job because it's winter (landscaper, beach bartender) or summer (ski lift operator, hockey ref) I see no reason to not count that in the same way as a loss because of other circumstances.

    Another issue I have with their 9.7% (or 10%, whatever it's supposedly at right now) is that it doesn't include people who have given up looking. This is essentially the government 'giving up' on these people, removing them from their statistics so they don't make them look as bad.

    Why not just release the real numbers more openly including seasonal layoffs, people who have had their benefits run out, and those who were previously employed but can no longer find work?

  2. #2
    World Champ ODH's Avatar
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    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    The numbers have always been reported that way. Seasonally adjusting the numbers makes sense because it gives a real sense of the unemployment situation. For instance, if unemployment drops every year by a percentage point in December becasue of short term retail hirings for the holiday season, it would not make sense to report that unemployment drop as good news because it is not reflective of the reality of the economic situaiton.

    I also suspect that don't report people who have stopped looking because it is hard to accurately report those numbers. How can you tell who has chosen to stop looking out of frustration or if they retired early or decided to leave the workforce for personal reasons (like becoming a stay at home mom)

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    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    'Real'' unemployment stats will never be shown -they have 100 spin doctors working 24 hours a day -if the real stats were to come out -including the grossly underemployed -the president's approval rating would drop 20 points the first day .
    Those unfortunates who lost their jobs and their benefits are exhausted are no longer counted anywhere -including the census -??? Does this mean the person you see carrying a sign ''will work for food '' is a figment or your imagination ??-the homeless ,the mentally ill, ex-felons -count nowhere .
    The guy with the MBA working 24 hours a week at McDonalds is considered employed -of course he has 4 roommates and has student loans larger than his paycheck but , what the heck-who cares ?? I used to-not anymore .

  4. #4

    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    Quote Originally Posted by Schlottke View Post
    I understand why it's important to track some things seasonally (profit/loss for a ski resort, beach resort.. etc), but unemployment adjusted seasonally seems to be a way to make the numbers look better than they are - it certainly doesn't keep those people paying their mortgage.

    If you lose your job because it's winter (landscaper, beach bartender) or summer (ski lift operator, hockey ref) I see no reason to not count that in the same way as a loss because of other circumstances.

    Another issue I have with their 9.7% (or 10%, whatever it's supposedly at right now) is that it doesn't include people who have given up looking. This is essentially the government 'giving up' on these people, removing them from their statistics so they don't make them look as bad.

    Why not just release the real numbers more openly including seasonal layoffs, people who have had their benefits run out, and those who were previously employed but can no longer find work?
    Do you think this is a one world socialist globalist conspiracy headed by the POTUS?

  5. #5

    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    Quote Originally Posted by washed up wrestler View Post
    Do you think this is a one world socialist globalist conspiracy headed by the POTUS?
    No, I think it's a poor representation of the truth.

    If you're employed for a Holiday sales, you're employed. It doesn't give a false fact- people were employed in December for Holiday sales and anyone with fourth grade reasoning skills will know that's why. Adjusting the number so it's 'easier to understand' or 'easier to accept' just dumbs down the nation as a whole and let's us accept 10% as the unemployment rate when it is in fact much higher.

    Major changes were done in 1994 to make the rate appear better than it is. They've always seasonally adjusted the rates (as far back as I can tell, anyway) but it seems like a goofy thing to adjust.

    The same amount of $$ is needed to run a household/state/government each month but the same doesn't go for Landscaping or Ski Resorts.

  6. #6
    Olympic Champ RYou's Avatar
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    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    Big things forecast for a BULLISH 2010. Let's hope they are right.
    Life's not the breaths you take, the breathing in and out that gets you through the day ain't what it's all about. It's the moments that take your breath away.

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    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: "Seasonally Adjusted" Unemployment Drops

    I read today our NATIONAL DEBT is 12.4 TRILLION dollars -the only way out of this is to tell China to get paid and pray we don't NUKE the planet-we need to start over in several places as out infrastructure will not last 10 more years .
    !) the most important in my book -95% inheritance tax over 2 million dollars . Why should Paris Hilton be worth 25 million dollars when she is a twit ??
    On 2 million that leaves a person a $100,000 jumping off point -how many of you received $100k on your 18th birthday ?? Mandate 85 % to rebuilding the country and paying off the debt .Let the lawyers fight over the rest .
    Soon we will have a society based upon Noblisse Obligge -which has and never will work . Does anyone else find the simple fact that Sam Waltons' kids are all billionaires the least bit bothersome ?
    you are under NO obligation to eat a shot sandwich-and the Govt has gone to a lot of trouble to fix us one -eat if you choose -.

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