http://vegaswatch.blogspot.com/2007/...odds-16-0.html


Tuesday, October 30, 2007
What Are The Odds: 16-0
As you may have heard, the Colts and Patriots are playing each other this weekend. If the Pats win, they'll move to 9-0; Indianapolis would be 8-0.

Regardless of Sunday's winner, the undefeated hype will really get serious. In fact, BetUS has already posted odds on what record each team will finish with.

Below are the posted odds, as well as the equivalent percentage. The % has been adjusted to take out the house advantage, so each teams' add up t0 100%.




Before Sunday's 52-7 win over the Redskins, the Pats were at 3.5:1 (18.2%); prior to beating the Panthers, Indy was 8.5:1 (8.8%). The fact that these lines moved pretty dramatically indicates they got a lot of action on "16-0" for each team last week.

I think this may have unreasonably changed the line. WSEX has the line for either team going 16-0 at +177; the equivalent % for that is 34.7%. The Pats' and Colts' "16-0" BetUS odds add up to 38.2%. So maybe it's closer to 24% for the Pats, and 11% for Indy.

The line on this week's game is all over the place; BetUS has it at 6.5, but The Greek has the Pats favored by 5. Either way, that's pretty unbelievable, since this game is at the RCA Dome. Those lines mean the Pats are between 8 and 9.5 points better than Indy, after you figure in the three points for home-field. I know the Pats are good, but are they really that much better than a team that's 7-0?

Anyway, that means the Pats win on Sunday about 69% of the time, according to Vegas. So it depends on the margin of victory, but if the Pats win on Sunday their "16-0" odds would shift to about even money, or 38% after taking out the house advantage. A Colts win would probably put them at about the same odds (maybe 3:2, although people would probably go nuts if they beat NE). Either way, these guys better watch out.

Finally, here are the remaining schedules for each team (IND on the left, obviously):