Conference Week Projections

[Gold]

I'm pretty sure no one will be interested in this at all, but I'm bored so I'll do it anyway. I might revisit it after seeds come out for the various tournaments. Here is my lineup:

125: Jarrod Patterson (Big 12)
Patterson is pretty much dead even with Morrison, and Waters is right there, too. I think he winds up the top seed because he has just one conference loss and Morrison has two, but we'll see. Assuming he's the top seed, I think he has a 50% chance of winning, a 50% chance of taking second.
Projected Finish: 1.5

133: Rollie Peterkin (EIWA)
Ahh I don't know. I'm kind of worried about Rollie since his last two losses, both to EIWA opponents, have been "bad." 10-5 to Grey, 5-2 to the freshman Cagnina. Part of me thinks maybe he tweaked something and is hurting, because those margins are bigger than they should be. At this point in the year, the reason doesn't really matter though. I don't see him beating Grey after a 10-5 loss, and I give him 50/50 over Cagnina.
Projected Finish: 2.5

141: Cody Cleveland (SoCon)
Barring an aggravation to his injury, Cody should lay waste to the SoCon field.
Projected Finish: 1

149: Frank Molinaro (Big 10)
I don't see anyone in the Big Ten beating Fwankie either.
Projected Finish: 1

157: David Taylor (Big 10)
Probably bonuses everyone.
Projected Finish: 1

165: Andrew Howe (Big 10)
I'm not sure what to expect here. Donnie Pritzlaff says he looks awesome. Even if that's true, he's probably just a tweak away from being in serious pain. If he's even 80%, I like his chances to win the conference (though Sponseller might knock him off if he's just 80%). I'll say he has a 25% chance of winning it, 25% of taking second place, 25% third place, 25% fourth.
Projected Finish: 2.5

174: Colby Covington (Pac 10)
The only person with a shot of beating him is Amu, and I'll take Covington two times out of three against him.
Projected Finish: 1.33

184: Chris Honeycutt (EWL)
Max Thomusseit is the 2nd-best 184 in the league, and Honeycutt just majored him.
Projected Finish: 1

197: Dustin Kilgore (MAC)
The best anyone can hope to do is keep it to a decision, and no one has done that yet this year.
Projected Finish: 1

285: Tony Nelson (Big 10)
I'm thinking Nelson gets the #3 seed here, but it could easily be the 4-seed since he just lost to Rasing. That doesn't bode well for his chances of making the finals. Let's say there's a 50% chance he's the 3 seed, and I give him a 50% chance of beating whoever he faces in the semifinals. So that's a 25% chance he makes the finals. Then I'll say he beats Wade one time out of four (due to Wade's inconsistency and Nelson's ability to keep any match close). So, 6.25% chance he wins, 18.75% he takes second. I'll give it a 25% chance each that he takes 3rd, 4th, or 5th.
Projected Finish: 3.4375

Flex: Robert Hamlin (EIWA)
Hamlin, Bosak and Rebertus have a triangle of success. I have no idea who will be 1, 2, and 3 seed, so I'll say there's a even chance Hamlin gets each seed. I give him a 50% chance of beating either Rebertus or Bosak. So we'll say 1/3 chance he takes 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, each.
Projected Finish: 2

[vaisforlovers]

125-Jon Morrison-1.5 I think he's better than all the guys in his conference, but since he played Pattersons stall fest game once and lost I'll go with the 1.5 like Gold did for Patterson
133-Jordan Oliver-1
141-Chris Diaz-1 He'll beat Nelson and that Maryland kid this time around.
149-Mario Mason-3 He beat the number 2 but lost to the 4 and Santos from Columbia. Depends on which Mason shows up. Anywhere from 2-5 is a possibility for Mario.
157-Jason Welch-3 He should be the three seed which means he'll hit DSJ in Semis. He'll probably lose again to DSJ and hit Young in the 3/4th match and he'll beat young as he did last time
165-Tyler Caldwell-2 Should beat Toal again, won't beat Burroughs without a lead pipe in hand.
174-Ed Ruth-1 He beats guys and doesn't even look like he's trying. He'll have his a game and should be untouchable for big 10s.
184-Grant Gambrall-3 3rd would be a nice showing for him. There's a chance he beats Steinhaus at Big 10s, but i'm not picking it.
197-Clayton Foster-1 He will beat Ward
285-Zach Rey-1 Tough weight at EIWA but Rey just wins and wins
Flex: Luke Lofthouse-2 Uncle Luke has been a tough nut lately and I see a conference finals appearance and he might give Brandvold a bit of trouble and make it an interesting match.

Avg=1.7

[vaisforlovers]

Howe will either win or inj default out.

He's already done more than enough to qualify for NCAAs.

[Gold]

For the record, Patterson was just as offensive as Morrison in their last match. Came very close to scoring once but didn't get it done. Morrison did the same but finished. In both matches, Morrison has had no success riding Patterson when they started from the referee's position, but he did ride him for about a minute after taking him down.

I thought Morrison was a little better than Patterson going into the last match, but now I think it's a pretty even tossup.

[vaisforlovers]

Glad we have that in the record now.

[vaisforlovers]

I didn't see the 2nd match. Did you have to order it? Or am I just bad at searching flo?

[Gold]

Yeah, had to order it.

[Herkey#1]

125 Brad Pataky BIG TEN 4th
133 Andrew Hochstrasser PAC 10 1st
141 Montell Marion BIG TEN 1ST
141 Boris Novochkov PAC 10 1st
149 Jason Chamberlain PAC 10 1st
157 Derek St. John BIG TEN 2nd
165 Ryan Des Roches PAC 10 1st
174 Alex Meade EWL 1st
184 Chris Perry BIG 12 1st
197 Joe Kennedy EIWA 3rd
285 Christian Brantley WWC 1st

Meade lost to Dessino in his second match this year but will beat him this time around as he has adjusted to 174. Kennedy just beat Burak and could do it again, but I've got him finishing a conservative third.

[Herkey#1]

I havent gone back to read the rules, and I'm too lazy to so I'll just ask the comish for clarification. My right index finger is getting tired of clicking.

Does the "wild card" team have to beat everyone to qualify or just the teams that didnt qualify through the regular season? Example...If Buckvader wins conference week are we not taking a "wild card" team?