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Discuss Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions at the College Wrestling within the Wrestling Talk Forums; And I acknowledged that...him not achieving the same level of domination so far this year ...
  1. #19
    Administrator JensenS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    And I acknowledged that...him not achieving the same level of domination so far this year that is. I'm still picking him though, if you don't like that fact its really not my problem.

    Nice ice fishing crack too. Its kind of hard for me to pull that off though given that I'm from Delaware.

    184 (probably the weight I had the least trouble with)

    Preseason
    1. Jake Herbert
    2. Mike Pucillo
    3. Kirk Smith
    4. Phil Keddy
    5. Dustin Kilgore
    6. Vince Jones
    7. Rocco Caponi
    8. Jerome Ward

    Midseason
    1. Jake Herbert
    2. Mike Pucillo
    3. Kirk Smith
    4. Phil Keddy
    5. Dustin Kilgore
    6. Josh Patterson
    7. Louis Caputo
    8. Doug Umbehauer

    Herbert has clearly established himself in my mind as the Hodge front runner thus far this year. His 15-1 decimation of Keddy in the Midlands final is arguably the most impressive performance of any wrestler in any one match this year (Metcalf's win over Caldwell is probably the only other choice). So far he's got pins over Umbehauer, Henderson, and Vince Jones. Then he has a tech fall over Ward, the already mentioned destruction of Keddy, and in his only win where he didn't get bonus points this year a win over Kilgore.

    You can still just about count Pucillo's matches so far this year on one hand but he's won them all and nearly all his matches thus far have been against pretty quality guys. He's got wins over Honeycutt, Kilgore, Dolly (major), Kerber, Henderson (major), and Smith. He also looks exactly like my buddy Cags. I don't think he beats Herbert though.

    I thought Smith would be a candidate for most improved wrestler of the year so far, but I don't know if I'd drop that superlative on him. He was good last year and he's good this year. He's beaten LeBlanc twice and Kilgore both by major (majored LeBlanc both times), then he's also beaten Kerber, Honeycutt, Biondo, Caputo, and Ward. The loss to Pucillo was his only one of the year so far.

    It may be a slight to Keddy to pick a guy over him that he beat twice last year but I just think that Smith is the more dynamic wrestler. Both guys are strong (although Keddy is stronger) but Smith is the better technician and I think that wins him their match when they eventually wrestle. Keddy has beaten Caputo twice, then he's also beaten Patterson, Ward, Blanton, LeBlanc (major), Jones, and Kerber. The destruction by Herbert is his only loss.

    Kilgore closes out my top 5 which remains the exact same from the preseason. So far he's lost to Herbert, Pucillo, and Smith and thats it. He's beaten Budi (tech), Patterson (10-4), Craig, and Caponi (23-9). His match with Pucillo impressed me as he was very aggressive despite losing. I still wonder where those two stalling calls he got hit with came from.

    Josh Patterson currently leads the country in falls. He is also apparently obscure enough that even JT#1 the master of obscure wrestlers didn't know who he was until a few weeks ago. So far he has a tech and a pin over Bomberger, a pin over Craig, a pin over Barone, and a 10-0 win over Honeycutt. He's got a loss to Simaz who has since seen success at 197, and also had already mentioned losses to Keddy and Kilgore.

    Caputo is another guy who's season thus far I would describe as kind of quiet despite his having spent the entire time in the top 10 and most of it in the top 5. He's beaten Kerber, Simaz, Budi, Blanton, Kissel, and Ward. He's got two losses to Keddy, and then losses to Smith and Umbehauer.

    Speaking of Umbehauer it may be weird to predict him below a guy he beat right now but he just hasn't wrestled enough for me to move him up above Caputo so far. He's beaten Geisen, Caputo, Blanton, and Honeycutt. Then he's been pinned by Herbert and has a loss to Craig.

  2. #20
    Super Moderator Zapp Brannigan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    I don't think it's a slight to Keddy. I like Smith a lot, and he is my pick to be sacrificed at Jake Herbert's altar at the NCAA finals.
    Jacob Schlottke---Gone too soon, and the world is a little less bright because of it. RIP, brother.

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  3. #21
    Administrator JensenS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    197

    Preseason
    1. Max Askren
    2. Jake Varner
    3. Hudson Taylor
    4. Tyrel Todd
    5. Craig Brester
    6. Dallas Herbst
    7. Patrick Bond
    8. Josh Arnone

    Midseason
    1. Jake Varner
    2. Max Askren
    3. Craig Brester
    4. Dallas Herbst
    5. Hudson Taylor
    6. Brandon Halsey
    7. Tyrel Todd
    8. Clayton Foster

    I said it in the National Duals thread, but those eagerly awaiting Jake Varner presumably going to go back to winning 3-2 every match after the loss at Midlands so they could start bashing him again are going to be sorely disappointed. He more or less dominated every second of his match against Brester en route to winning 10-3. He was reversed but he got out quickly and then got the late TD and then a sweet transition to a crank back for back points. He also spurred Iowa State's victory over Boise State with a pin over Chriswell after Chriswell had just beaten Herbst badly. He's got the well known 13-1 win over Taylor, and then also has wins over Brandvold, Herbst and Strawn. The Midlands final to Herbst remains his only loss.

    Askren is the guy that I'm still really excited to see Varner wrestle. I said Jenkins was smaller than I thought he would be, Askren is a guy who is actually bigger than I thought. He's every bit as big as Varner is. He's got two wins over Strawn, then a win over Taylor and one over Orozco. So long as he isn't wrestling people named "Dallas Herbst" he seems to be ok. The Midlands loss wasn't anywhere near the shellacking that last year's Vegas finals was but for a time it looked like it would be. He's also got a loss by fall to Logan Brown.

    Brester was undefeated going into the match with Varner having really put it to pretty much everyone he's wrestled so far this year. He walked through both the Kauffman Brand and Vegas tournaments beating Brandvold, Anderson, Brown, and Starks in the process all by bonus points. He had to go to OT to beat Beatty this weekend but still came out on top.

    Herbst has beaten both of my projected finalists so the argument can certainly be made that he deserves to be higher on the list right now. Other than the win over Varner and Askren he also has pins over Brent Jones, and Anderson and a major over Brown. He's got a loss to Varner in the dual in a low scoring match where he was pretty much controlled the entire time, and then the loss this weekend to Chriswell (that I unfortunately didn't see) where he appears to have been pretty thoroughly dominated.

    Taylor's had some ups and some downs so far this year. He's got pins over Starks, Kennedy, and Oplinger. Then he also has an 11-0 major over Oplinger, and wins over Bradshaw and Beatty. He however has the 13-1 loss to Varner, he's been pinned by Byers and Strawn, then he's also lost to Askren and Brandvold.

    Since he's come into the line up at Reno, Halsey has been wrestling very very well. In less than a month so far he has wins over Drury, Foster, Chine (major), Brent Jones (fall), and Byers. He hasn't lost.

    I mentioned in my first post that I nearly dropped Tyrel Todd out of these predictions due to injury issues but like I said I couldn't find a guy that I was completely comfortable with inserting in replacement for him right now. I think Todd is strong enough and powerful enough of a wrestler to where he can win off of just strength and guile. He won't be the dominator though that he would be expected to be when healthy though. So far he's beaten Kennedy and Anderson, and then he has a loss this weekend to Simaz.

    Seems like an awful long time for a first AA for John Smith (and he does have possibilities down low with Obe, Parks, and Mason) but Foster is really the first guy in his line up that I feel good about picking. So far he's beaten Strawn (fall), Kennedy (major), Brent Jones (major), Lapotsky, and Bradshaw. His loss to Halsey at Reno is his only one thus far.

  4. #22
    Super Moderator Zapp Brannigan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    You picked Foster 8th. You can't feel THAT good about picking him. I'm sorry, feel like i'm picking apart all your hard work. I think these are awesome, I've enjoyed reading them quite a bit.
    Jacob Schlottke---Gone too soon, and the world is a little less bright because of it. RIP, brother.

    One, two, Evans is coming for you...

  5. #23
    Administrator JensenS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    285

    Preseason
    1. Scott Steele
    2. Jared Rosholt
    3. Kyle Massey
    4. David Zabriskie
    5. Mark Ellis
    6. Dan Erekson
    7. John Wise
    8. Zach Hammond

    Midseason
    1. Jared Rosholt
    2. David Zabriskie
    3. Mark Ellis
    4. Kyle Massey
    5. Zach Shaeffer
    6. Konrad Dudziak
    7. Dan Erekson
    8. Jermail Porter

    Rosholt has definitively established himself as the heavyweight to beat so far this year through that tried and true heavyweight formula. Be big (and he's gotten significantly bigger since his redshirt freshman year) and know how to actually wrestle. He's undefeated (although some believe Dudziak beat him at Reno, Rosholt still got the arm raised). He's beaten Massey, Ellis, Rey, Fernandez, Monteiro (major), Dudziak, Berhow, Trice, and Fendone.

    Z continues to be one of the best heavys in the country despite still being one of the smallest. He did lose to another small guy this weekend in Tucker Lane after getting put to his back, he nearly came back but just didn't quite have enough time. Then he also has the loss to Dom Bradley at Midlands which he avenged later in the tournament. He's got two wins over Erekson, and other wins over Massey, Trice, and Brantley.

    Ellis seems to be significantly more consistent this year, whether or not he has enough to beat the boys above him though reamins to be seen. He's already lost to Rosholt but thats his only one so far. He's beaten Wise, Monteiro, Brantley, Trice, Goff, and Shaeffer. His mat wrestling is something that gives him an advantage against a lot of people.

    Massey seems to have had a rough go so far this year in tournament format having lost to Monteiro out in Vegas, and to Goff and Brantley at Midlands. Then he's also been beaten by Rosholt, Zabriskie, and in arguably the upset of the D1 tournament this weekend by Ben Berhow. He also does have wins over Dobies, Morrison (fall), Lane, Tamillow, and a fall over Brantley.

    In another example of my fickleness I might project Shaeffer higher if his team didn't persist in wearing uncomfortably white singlets. He's beaten Rey, McLean (fall), Lane, Morrison (11-0), and Erekson. He's been beaten by Monteiro, Ellis, and Wise.

    Dudziak has already beaten my preseason champion twice this year, and as I mentioned some people think he's beaten my midseason champion as well. Other than the loss to Rosholt he's also been beaten by Porter. He's got the two wins over Steele and he also has a win over Monteiro.

    Erekson has handled his move up so far this year very well. He's really tough on top and he definitely showed that when he pinned to clinch the win in the duals finals this weekend. He's also beaten Nye, Bradley, Goff, Berhow, and Lane. He's got the two losses to Zabriskie and he's also lost to Brantley and Shaeffer. He's started to look a lot better from neutral this weekend and with his toughness on top he definitely has a shot to finish higher if he can continue to get used to wrestling heavys on the feet.

    Pardon the cliche but I guess I'm predicting a big finish for quite possibly the biggest wrestler in the entire country. Porter is massive. He's got wins so far this year over Fernandez, Dudziak, Morrison, and Rey. His lone loss thus far is to Joe Fendone.




    That was fun. My hands hurt.

  6. #24
    ODH
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Nice work. What is the story with Scott Steele, is he injured?

  7. #25
    Administrator JensenS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Its been rumored that he is. He defaulted against Porter in the Scuffle finals and hasn't wrestled since.

  8. #26
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Nice work, will be interesting to compare that come the results in March.

    Now if anyone is truly bored or with a bunch of spare time it would be interesting to score that out team wise, without taking into account bonus points, just advancement points. I for one dont have the time nor dedication but would be interested if someone did do it!

  9. #27
    Super Moderator Dart Shark's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Just wait for SHP to see this thread.

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