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Thread: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

  1. #10
    Administrator Gold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    I like how Torsten Gillespie gets like 5 mentions in this write up which are all for losses and because his brother is Gregor. Not trying to dis him or Jensens, I just think it's kind of funny...

  2. #11

    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    LOL @ the pretty boy haircut
    RIP Jacob Schlottke 1984-2011




  3. #12
    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Zapp Brannigan View Post
    Ruschell lost to Metcalf in the Midlands semis, he beat PTAX in the semis.
    I believe you mean FINALS .

  4. #13
    Olympic Champ r.payton@att.net's Avatar
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Caldwell 'only' beat P J Gillespie 7-4 last week .

  5. #14

    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    157

    Preseason
    1. Dustin Schlatter
    2. Gregor Gillespie
    3. Mike Poeta
    4. Jordan Leen
    5. JP O'Connor
    6. Dan Vallimont
    7. Cyler Sanderson
    8. Adam Hall

    Midseason
    1. Jordan Burroughs
    2. Gregor Gillespie
    3. Mike Poeta
    4. Jordan Leen
    5. JP O'Connor
    6. Cyler Sanderson
    7. Michael Chandler
    8. Adam Hall

    I'm as impressed with Jordan Burroughs this season as I am with any wrestler not named Brent Metcalf or Jake Herbert. He made both Dan Vallimont and Cyler Sanderson look awful this weekend at National Duals. He has not lost this year. He's beaten Safratowich 3 times, then he's beaten Knox and Welch. Then he has his real headline wins over Schlatter, O'Connor, Leen, Vallimont, and Sanderson. I don't know how you're going to beat this guy (although I will expound on a few theories when I talk about the coming guys). One thing I found interesting, he did take a few big breaths through his mouth later in the match against Vallimont so he appeared to be tiring. However even while doing that he was still doing a great job moving his feet. The mental toughness to do that while tired impressed me.

    Gillespie's best shot at knocking him off will probably come through using his very low level, very staggered stance to help protect his legs. He will have to make every shot and half shot count so that probably means no half shots where he goes way low to try and snag an ankle (but rarely succeeds) because Burroughs will reshot the holy hell out of him. Then try and get on top and lock his rebar in. Not sure if he'll get back points but thats something he can ride with and try and grind on Burroughs with. So far this year he has two wins over Moley and Erisman, he's got a major over Vallimont, then he's also beaten Terry, Vernon, Hall, Johnstone, and Bowman (major).

    Poeta finally made it back this weekend and appears to be ready to go given that he put up 37 points against two guys that he would be expected to put 37 points up against. His best bet is probably to try and put the match into a phone booth (and this is kind of out of his comfort zone) and work from there. Don't let Burroughs build momentum up on his shots like he can from the outside and then hit his own fantastic reshots for TD's.

    I think Leen may have the best shot at Burroughs, but to do so he'd have to wrestle what would probably be an unpopular strategy. His wrestling from one knee against Poeta helped win him a National title last year and it worked pretty well against Burroughs in the Vegas final when he made his shots count. There were times though where he didn't and when he didn't Burroughs took him down with reshots. Like Gillespie his toughness on top is an advantage that he can try to exploit. Other than the loss to Burroughs he also has a loss to O'Connor. Then he has two wins over Sanderson (a pin and a major), then he has wins over Winston, Vallimont, Kinser, Hall, and Johnstone.

    O'Connor is the guy that has held Burroughs to his lowest scoring output that aformentioned 3-2 match in the Vegas semi's and if he can keep the score that low he has a shot. He's not really a guy that is going to win shootouts though so if he wants to win thats probably his best bet. He's got the win over Leen, then he also has wins over Johnstone, Hall, Safratowich, and then two wins over Pami. Other than the loss to Burroughs he's also dropped a match to Chandler.

    Of the supposed struggling Iowa State guys Cyler definitely had the worst weekend of all of them dropping consecutive matches to Hall, Leen, and Burroughs the two to Leen and Burroughs both being by major. He's got wins over Reiner by major, over Chandler, and over Matt Coughlin. Then he also has the loss in the Midlands final to Bono in terms of notable matches so far.

    Michael Chandler has wrestled very well so far this year save for when he got smoked by Trevor Hall 15-7. He's two wins over Erisman, and wins over McSpadden, Bowman (major), Pami, Baxter, the aformentioned win over O'Connor, Knox, Coughlin, Welch, and Johnstone. He's also got losses to Sanderson and Vallimont so far this year.

    Adam Hall is looking good so far this year showing that he's handled his move up very well. He's beaten Moley, Winston, Trevor Hall, Pami, Dragon, and Sanderson. Then he's lost 1-0 to Gillespie, to Leen, and to O'Connor.


    My hands are kind of tired so I might take a break for a while after this halfway point. 165 was interesting to do. I settled on the 8 AA's pretty quickly but other than picking the champion putting 2-8 in order was hard.

  6. #15

    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Gold View Post
    I like how Torsten Gillespie gets like 5 mentions in this write up which are all for losses and because his brother is Gregor. Not trying to dis him or Jensens, I just think it's kind of funny...
    Not just for his brother being Gregor.

    Most of the guys that I mention in terms of the "wins" are guys that the respective wrestler beat that are ranked in the top 20.

    Last I looked Gillespie is ranked in the top 20.

  7. #16

    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Alright, I lied...

    165

    Preseason
    1. Nick Marable
    2. Mack Lewnes
    3. Stephen Dwyer
    4. Jon Reader
    5. Moza Fay
    6. Colt Sponseller
    7. Andrew Howe
    8. Brandon Mason

    Midseason
    1. Mack Lewnes
    2. Colt Sponseller
    3. Moza Fay
    4. Ryan Morningstar
    5. Stephen Dwyer
    6. Jon Reader
    7. Nick Marable
    8. Andrew Howe

    Lewnes has clearly established himself as the guy to beat here. After losing to Marable (who he just can't seem to beat having lost all three times they've wrestled) he's racked up quality wins and hasn't lost. He's got two wins over Sponseller (including the one by major), and then a major over Swartz, and wins over Howe, Rendos, King, Reader, and Morningstar.

    This is another one of those picks with varying degrees of defensibility that I talked about. I'm well aware that the only people who see Sponseller in the finals are me, and every single Ohio State fan but whatever. He's really impressed me with the way he's cleaned up his wrestling both from last year and from earlier this year. He had the 13-9 loss to Fay at the All Star, then came back and beat him 9-6 this past weekend (in a match that I was delighted to call), he had the loss by major to Lewnes out in Vegas and while he still lost to him this weekend it had to go to overtime and to his credit he was in on shots several times through out the match. Other than those matches mentioned he also lost Marable this weekend, then has wins over the course of the year over Glasser (x2), Manuel, Dwyer, King, and Sherfey.

    Fay certainly isn't huring for nice wins so far this year but I don't think he beats Lewnes, and after watching his match with Sponseller this weekend I don't think he beats Sponseller again either. His only loss other than the one to Sponseller was to Howe and Midlands but he came back and avenged that. He's also got wins over Marable, Morningstar, Manuel, and Stewart.

    Morningstar is a guy that I'm still not completely sure what to make of. His matches aren't all that exciting or interesting but he's continually found ways to win matches this year against the best guys in the weight. He seems to have realized his strengths finally. Say whatever you will about the controversy in OT against Reader but Morningstar showed guts to pick up that tying TD. He's got two wins over Reader, then wins over Stewart, Brown, Garvin, Marable, Glasser and Dwyer. Then he's lost to Fay and Lewnes. As an aside Its been fun watching individuals (mostly at other places) who have called Dustin Schlatter and Jake Varner everything but children of God the past couple years defend his style as "what works for him."

    Dwyer was a guy that was pretty tricky to place. He's beaten Garvin, Glasser, Sherfey, Howe (major), Manuel, and Reader having lost only to Sponseller and Morningstar. He did a great job peaking at the end of the year last year and with the Paulsons in the Nebraska room it'll be interesting to see how high Dwyer winds up placing at the end of the year.

    Had Reader beaten Dwyer in their match this weekend they would have switched places in these projections as other than the loss to Dwyer, Reader's only other losses were to Morningstar. He's done a nice job putting big scores on the guys he's supposed to beat. He's got wins so far over Manuel, Howe and Sherfey (major).

    Awful low on the list for my preseason National Champion but he's just having a lot of trouble putting points on the board so far this year. To his credit he's beaten both of my predicted finalists right now, and he's also beaten Smith-Bergsrud. He's got losses though to Rendos, Brown, Morningstar, Fay, and Kerr. In those five matches he's scored a grand total of 8 points. Thats problematic.

    Sticking to my guns on my preseason pick of Howe to make the podium. His marquee win so far was his 14-8 win over Fay at Midlands. He's also beaten Galante, Sherfey, and Glasser. He's lost to Lewnes, Dwyer, Reader, and Fay.

  8. #17

    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    174

    Preseason
    1. Jay Borschel
    2. Steve Luke
    3. Raymond Jordan
    4. Brandon Browne
    5. Steve Anceravage
    6. Alton Lucas
    7. Mike Miller
    8. Michael Cannon

    Midseason
    1. Steve Luke
    2. Jay Borschel
    3. Brandon Browne
    4. Raymond Jordan
    5. Steve Anceravage
    6. Michael Cannon
    7. Chris Henrich
    8. Quentin Wright

    Steve Luke seems to have finally realized that he has one of the best shots of anyone in the country. Coming into this year he's been known as a defense first guy but since he's realized that he's got a great shot he's started to put big scores up on guys. He's got wins so far over Borschel, Trevor Perry, Miller, Anceravage, and then two wins over Browne including a pretty dominating 6-2 in in their dual. He hasn't lost.

    I was kind of down on Borschel a few weeks ago but he's impressed me with his wrestling recently. While he still seems like he isn't scoring as many points as he did last year he's still finding a way to win. He's beaten Miller, Burk, Letts, Jordan, and Anceravage. He's also lost to Miller, then he has the All Star loss to Luke, and the loss to Browne this weekend on a last second TD. After losing to Dretsch at Big 10's he really peaked for NCAA's last year.

    I continue to say it Brandon Browne is the quietest top 3 (top 2 right now) wrestler in the country. He's only lost so far this year to #1 Luke (x2) and he's beaten Letts, Brenner, Wright, and Borschel. Like Morningstar over Reader at the Midlands his win over Borschel this weekend was gutty.

    In contrast to Borschel I was very high on Ray-J a few weeks ago and while I still like him a lot I've got to move Borschel above him given that he beat him, and I'm higher right now on Mr. Browne. He appears to have handled the move down very well. Having beaten Lucas twice, and also beaten Letts, and Rella at 174, and then beat #8 ranked (I believe) Bressler in a little sojourn back up to his old weight class.

    Anceravage fill out my top 5. He did a great job helping to spur Cornell's upset of Iowa State this weekend with his big pin over Iowa State's back up, then he had a solid win over Rella. So far he's also beaten Meys, Litton, Wright, Rebertus, and Henrich (by fall). Then he had two losses this weekend to Luke, and to Borschel. He was in on what would have been a tying TD against Borschel and appeared close to the TD but made a weird decision and wound up surrendering the insurance TD to Borschel.

    Cannon has handled his move up well and after watching him in his Midlands final I can see why as he is very tall. In a wholly unimportant anecdote he's also a member of the Reggie Cleveland All Stars at least for me (for the Bill Simmons fans). His team doesn't wrestle much but so far he's got two wins over Miller, and then wins over Trotman, Dergo, and Jordan.

    Chris Henrich has come out and wrestled very well this year as a guy that not many had heard of before the season had started. He's got wins over Trevor Perry (11-0), Wright, Decker, and Rebertus. His only loss was the already mentioned pin to Anceravage in the Scuffle finals and that was a match that was in overtime.

    Quentin Wright is my 3rd and final true freshman AA. He burst onto the scene with his upset win over Lucas in his first official match, he's also beaten Meys, and Nate Lee down at 174 and then he really impressed me this weekend when he went up to 184 and beat both Dorian Henderson, and and Anthony Biondo to help spur Penn State to two close dual wins. He's lost to Anceravage, Henrich, Letts, Brenner, and Browne.

  9. #18
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    Default Re: Post National Duals Reflections/Detailed AA Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by JensenS View Post
    133
    When I mentioned predictions that had varying degrees of defensibility my champion for this weight was one of them. I said in my preseason predictions that I didn't think Ness would miss a beat, he quite obviously has at the very least against the best of the best. Against the non best of the best he still tends to pin everyone, but his win over Strayer this weekend was probably his marquee win of the year. He's got losses to Kennedy, Hochstrasser, Dennis, and Humphrey.
    Did we see the same Ness at National Duals? Take it easy on that Applejack when you're out ice fishin'.
    I thought he'd do better at the beginning of this year, too. But Ness just isn't the same dominator at 133 as he was at 125.

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