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Thread: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

  1. #28
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Oklahoma State 31
    Iowa 26
    Oklahoma 18
    Minnesota 16
    Iowa State 15
    Penn State 11
    Michigan 10
    Cornell 8
    Wisconsin 7 Ohio State 7 Northern Iowa 7 Arizona State 7
    Lehigh 6
    Purdue 5 Oregon State 5 Nebraska 5 Indiana 5
    Pittsburgh 4 North Carolina 4 Michigan State 4 Central Michigan 4
    Northwestern 3 Edinboro 3 Cornell Iowa 3
    West Virginia 2 Ohio University 2 North Carolina State 2 Missouri 2 Louisiana State 2 Fresno State 2 Clarion 2 Cal Poly-SLO 2 Auburn 2

  2. #29
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Place #AA
    6th 45
    4th 42
    5th 39
    8th 29
    2nd 28
    7th 26
    3rd 25
    1st 21

    Since 1969
    Place avg AA/yr
    6th 1.05
    5th 0.91
    4th 0.88
    8th 0.88
    7th 0.79
    2nd 0.56
    3rd 0.53
    1st 0.37
    avg total FS AA per year 5.97

    Mostly FS thing to see:
    125 lb 6th place finish from Oklahoma State

    Least likely FS to see:

    197 lb NCAA Champ
    Last edited by kr1963; 05-26-2011 at 06:08 AM.

  3. #30

    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Quote Originally Posted by quinn14 View Post
    lol. I just forwarded the list to kr. If he knows how to do it, great. Meanwhile, me and Ellie Mae are gonna take a swim in our cement pond.
    hahaha!
    To avoid criticism say nothing, do nothing, be nothing.

  4. #31

    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Quote Originally Posted by kr1963 View Post
    Mostly FS thing to see:
    125 lb 6th place finish from Oklahoma State
    Did the Cowboys have anyone hit this right on the nose? I know Scott was 8th as a freshman but was anyone 6th?
    RIP Jacob Schlottke - 1984-2011

    "If Cornell finishes ahead of Iowa with five all americans I'll jump into the Des Moines River after finals." -Herkey#1 8/16/12

  5. #32
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Quote Originally Posted by JensenS View Post
    Did the Cowboys have anyone hit this right on the nose? I know Scott was 8th as a freshman but was anyone 6th?
    No that "most common denominator" doesn't show up but a number of other "common" things to a few schools do:

    1981 118 7 Davis, Barry Iowa
    1994 118 7 Mena, Mike Iowa

    1999 125 5 Vega, Leroy Minnesota
    2007 125 5 Ness, Jayson Minnesota

    (only freshman pair at same placing, same weight class, of same school, with the new weight classes)

    1973 126 5 Martin, Billy Oklahoma State
    1996 126 5 Guerrero, Eric Oklahoma State

    1977 134 5 Smith, Lee Roy Oklahoma State
    1989 134 5 Barbee, Chuck Oklahoma State

    1975 150 3 Martin, Paul Oklahoma State
    1978 150 3 Schultz, Dave Oklahoma State

    1974 167 6 Jackson, Jon Oklahoma State
    1990 167 6 Hadden, Robbie Oklahoma State

    1986 177 8 Ginther, John Arizona State
    1993 177 8 Lynch, Pat Arizona State

    1979 190 6 Thomas, Edcar Oklahoma
    1983 190 6 Chaid, Dan Oklahoma
    Last edited by kr1963; 05-26-2011 at 10:11 PM.

  6. #33
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Another anomaly is 1947. Maybe some real wrestling history buffs can explain this one. That article I posted seems to hint at the fact that FS elig has come & gone a few times. Maybe this has to do with guys going to college after the war but there has never been a year like it:

    1947 121 1 Hauser, Dick Cornell Iowa
    1947 136 1 Lange, Lowell Cornell Iowa
    1947 175 1 Scarpello, Joe Iowa
    1947 165 1 Nelson, Bill Northern Iowa
    1947 UNL 1 Hutton, Dick Oklahoma State

    1947 145 2 Snook, Rodger Cornell Iowa
    1947 136 4 Watson, Kenneth Oklahoma
    1947 175 4 VanCott, Waldemar Purdue

    This is the famous year of Cornell College of Iowa winning it all. Back then there were only EIGHT weight classes & FOUR places. That means 25% of the AA spots were grabbed by Freshman. Cornell College grabbed 6 AA in 8 classes (75% AA rate) & half of those AAs were FS. Notice that 5 of 8 Champs are also FS.

    In the 33 years between 1939 to 1971 this was the ONLY year that had FS champs. Obviously many of those years were FS ineligible. But in the next 40 years, (1972-2011) there were a grand total of 16 FS Champs. The only years with multiple FS champs were 1980, 1993, 2003 & 2010, with 2 each. So 1947 had FIVE FS champs accounting for 24% of all the FS champs in one year. Anomaly...

    In the previous year, 1946, there were 4 FS AA including 2 finalists. And to show you again what a weird year 1947 was statistically 1939, 1942 & 1952 are the only the other "pre-FS elig" years (pre-1968) that had FS AAs & that was only 1 FS AA per year.

    Also FS are 21-28 in the finals, a 43% win rate. It translates over time to that fact that we average 1 FS champ very 4 years: an Olympic event! The weight groups with zero NCAA FS champs are 150-157 & 190-197.
    Last edited by kr1963; 05-26-2011 at 10:56 PM.

  7. #34
    NCAA Champ BlueBloodLion's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    I suspect more than a few recruiting violations might have been involved - if they existed back then.

  8. #35

    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    Quote Originally Posted by kr1963 View Post
    Another anomaly is 1947. Maybe some real wrestling history buffs can explain this one. That article I posted seems to hint at the fact that FS elig has come & gone a few times. Maybe this has to do with guys going to college after the war but there has never been a year like it:

    1947 121 1 Hauser, Dick Cornell Iowa
    1947 136 1 Lange, Lowell Cornell Iowa
    1947 175 1 Scarpello, Joe Iowa
    1947 165 1 Nelson, Bill Northern Iowa
    1947 UNL 1 Hutton, Dick Oklahoma State

    1947 145 2 Snook, Rodger Cornell Iowa
    1947 136 4 Watson, Kenneth Oklahoma
    1947 175 4 VanCott, Waldemar Purdue

    This is the famous year of Cornell College of Iowa winning it all. Back then there were only EIGHT weight classes & FOUR places. That means 25% of the AA spots were grabbed by Freshman. Cornell College grabbed 6 AA in 8 classes (75% AA rate) & half of those AAs were FS. Notice that 5 of 8 Champs are also FS.

    In the 33 years between 1939 to 1971 this was the ONLY year that had FS champs. Obviously many of those years were FS ineligible. But in the next 40 years, (1972-2011) there were a grand total of 16 FS Champs. The only years with multiple FS champs were 1980, 1993, 2003 & 2010, with 2 each. So 1947 had FIVE FS champs accounting for 24% of all the FS champs in one year. Anomaly...

    In the previous year, 1946, there were 4 FS AA including 2 finalists. And to show you again what a weird year 1947 was statistically 1939, 1942 & 1952 are the only the other "pre-FS elig" years (pre-1968) that had FS AAs & that was only 1 FS AA per year.

    Also FS are 21-28 in the finals, a 43% win rate. It translates over time to that fact that we average 1 FS champ very 4 years: an Olympic event! The weight groups with zero NCAA FS champs are 150-157 & 190-197.
    I can't swear to it (have to peruse my copy of History of Collegiate Wrestling) but I believe 1947 was the first year where freshmen were briefly eligible.
    RIP Jacob Schlottke - 1984-2011

    "If Cornell finishes ahead of Iowa with five all americans I'll jump into the Des Moines River after finals." -Herkey#1 8/16/12

  9. #36
    Olympic Champ kr1963's Avatar
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    Default Re: Likelihood of a Freshman AA

    According to the stats I was given 1939, 1942 has had FS AA (one each) & 1946 had 4. Then 1952 had one.

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