I have a couple of trade offers pending, but assuming no one takes me up on one I'm going to have a major dillema for nationals.
I have two high quality #8 guys to choose from for my flex, and I dont know who to choose...
Mike Miller, 23-6
-Five of his losses are to the top four guys
-Has split 1-1 with borschel and both matches were close
-Has a "win" over Jordan in a match that was very even
-Returning AA from two years ago (the last year he was starting)
I think Miller is the most likely guy on my team to significantly overperform his seed. He is consistent so I dont see him getting upset, and he is talented enough to upset some of the top guys if the cards fall his way. He took 2nd at midlands in a field which included three of the current top four.
Jake Patacsil, 29-6
-Five of his losses are to top 8 guys
-Also lost to Pete Yates from VT
-Has split with Ruschell 1-2 in 3 matches that were all competitive
-Has beaten Palmer in the past (although definitely lost the all-time series) and could probably beat Jenkins given how jenkins has looked lately
-Win over returning AA Kyler
-Returning R12 from last year (lost to schlatter)
Im actually surprised at how consistent Ptax is this year from looking at his record, I thought he had more weird losses, but Yates is really the only one. Ruschell has gotten the better of him lately, but Ptax has been ahead in score in all three matches at one point or another. The problem for me though is that he is so one dimensional that its a lot easier to see him getting upset and knocked out if someone manages to stiffle his gameplan.
Also while I think miller has a pretty decent shot at upsetting some of the top guys, Ptax has gotten hammered by Metcalf and Palmer repeatedly, and I think Caldwell would cradle him up in about 30 seconds just like he did last year. However other then those guys there is no one that Ptax is incapable of beating.
Im leaning towards Ptax a lot more after doing this breakdown because he has a lot more bonus potential and 149 isnt really that strong outside of Metcalf. Ptax wont beat the top 3 or so but I think he has a chance against most of the other guys.