LoSt

I have a couple of trade offers pending, but assuming no one takes me up on one I'm going to have a major dillema for nationals.

I have two high quality #8 guys to choose from for my flex, and I dont know who to choose...


Mike Miller, 23-6
-Five of his losses are to the top four guys
-Extremely consistent
-Has split 1-1 with borschel and both matches were close
-Has a "win" over Jordan in a match that was very even
-Returning AA from two years ago (the last year he was starting)

I think Miller is the most likely guy on my team to significantly overperform his seed. He is consistent so I dont see him getting upset, and he is talented enough to upset some of the top guys if the cards fall his way. He took 2nd at midlands in a field which included three of the current top four.



Jake Patacsil, 29-6
-Five of his losses are to top 8 guys
-Also lost to Pete Yates from VT
-Has split with Ruschell 1-2 in 3 matches that were all competitive
-Has beaten Palmer in the past (although definitely lost the all-time series) and could probably beat Jenkins given how jenkins has looked lately
-Win over returning AA Kyler
-Returning R12 from last year (lost to schlatter)

Im actually surprised at how consistent Ptax is this year from looking at his record, I thought he had more weird losses, but Yates is really the only one. Ruschell has gotten the better of him lately, but Ptax has been ahead in score in all three matches at one point or another. The problem for me though is that he is so one dimensional that its a lot easier to see him getting upset and knocked out if someone manages to stiffle his gameplan.

Also while I think miller has a pretty decent shot at upsetting some of the top guys, Ptax has gotten hammered by Metcalf and Palmer repeatedly, and I think Caldwell would cradle him up in about 30 seconds just like he did last year. However other then those guys there is no one that Ptax is incapable of beating.


Im leaning towards Ptax a lot more after doing this breakdown because he has a lot more bonus potential and 149 isnt really that strong outside of Metcalf. Ptax wont beat the top 3 or so but I think he has a chance against most of the other guys.

__________________
Gold is an idiot.

Gold

My dilemma is worse. I have to bench one of Humphrey, Kennedy, Chriswell, or Herbst. I think it's going to end up being Herbst.

__________________
David Taylor - Future 4x NCAA Champ.

Zapp Brannigan

I'd say you bench one of the 133's.

Lost, I would go with Miller, because Patacsil just does weird stuff, and gets caught, whereas Miller has shown an ability to beat the best guys.

__________________
Rest in Peace Adam Frey, you left us far too soon

Brands: Metcalf! What is good in life?

Metcalf: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

LoSt

Yeah thats what I originally thought, but Bonus points are so huge because of the way we score things.... Gillespie scored more fantasy points taking 5th last year then Leen did winning a title.

__________________
Gold is an idiot.

Zapp Brannigan

Were the placement points awarded the same way, though?

__________________
Rest in Peace Adam Frey, you left us far too soon

Brands: Metcalf! What is good in life?

Metcalf: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

LoSt

that is mad tough wow... why did you end up with those guys? you should have traded some of them off.

I would start humphrey and decide between the other three, I really dont know what I would do


-Chriswell
Kind of an X factor, has some impressive wins but not really a ton of matches to judge him by

-Herbst
no title contender, but he is a returning AA and 197 is weak this year

-Kennedy
Very quality AA, but is in the deepest weight class in the nation

I might lean towards benching kennedy but its a tough call. How much do you need to gamble? Chriswell could easily DNP but he could also make the finals.

__________________
Gold is an idiot.

Gold

I was considering keeping Herbst until he failed to impress me this weekend--and I don't just mean against Todd. Humphrey and Kennedy may both end up as finalists at 133. I like that, and there is a very good chance one of them will be the champ (as good as any set of 2 133s out there).

__________________
David Taylor - Future 4x NCAA Champ.

LoSt

Im using this years system for that, last year he wouldnt have because we only had champ bonuses, but this year we get placement points for all AA spots.

Jensens really dropped the ball on this one and I warned him about it months and months ago... Because we are still using the +3, +6 scoring instead of standard tourney scoring, placement bonuses are hugely deflated compared to wins.

For example three pins in the championship bracket of a normal tourney is 9 points, equivalent to a fourth place finish. In the consolation bracket it would be only 7.5

However in our scoring system three pins is 18 points no matter what bracket they are in, which is more then the bonus for having a champion.

This means that it is extremely easy for the 3rd-5th place finishers to score more points then the 1st and 2nd.

I was advocating for normal tourney scoring during the preseason but for whatever reason no one else went with it and we ended up with the system we have now. Basically it switches from conferences, where champs are super super important, to champs not being very important at all. Ergo its often better to have #3 guy in the country who is going to win his conference and take 3rd then the guy with a shot at being a champ who is in the b10. I think Jensens found this out the hard way this year...

I dont think most people realize this... Thats part of why I am so confident that I will win this year even if my guys dont place as highly as I expect them to. If we used normal scoring I would start miller for the reasons you mentioned, but Ptax scored 14 points in 3 wins last year while Miller only scored 16 for placing 8th. and I think the odds are in favor of ptax at least making AA this year.

Thats why its such a tough choice!

__________________
Gold is an idiot.

Gold

In my mega trade with rpayton, I ended up getting Herbst and Kennedy when I already had Hump and Chriswell. It left me with a hole at 149 (Steve Brown, so not horrible, but not ideal), which I didn't figure would be a problem because I planned on trading one of the aforementioned studs for a better 149. No one was interested, though, and I don't think we can trade anymore, so I'm just kind of stuck.

Chriswell is definitely the x-factor.

__________________
David Taylor - Future 4x NCAA Champ.

Zapp Brannigan

Hey, brother, I tried to get Metcalf off of you, you just went with Russ' deal. You would have had a decent 149 replacement, I think, and a higher ranked 157 then you currently have. Just saying.

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Rest in Peace Adam Frey, you left us far too soon

Brands: Metcalf! What is good in life?

Metcalf: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.