Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Breaking down the Hawks' chances
By Andy Hamilton
Iowa City Press-Citizen
The Iowa wrestling team embarks on its quest to return to the pinnacle of its sport Thursday when the NCAA Championships begin at Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The Hawkeyes enter the tournament as the No. 1 team in the country -- the first time they have been in this position since they claimed their last title in 2000.
Iowa's return to glory has been one of the top storylines during a wild season in the sport. There have been dozens of upsets -- both individually and in team competition -- during the chase for the championship.
Here is a weight-by-weight breakdown of the tournament.
125
The top eight seeds: 1. Angel Escobedo, Indiana; 2.
Jayson Ness, Minnesota; 3. Paul Donahoe, Nebraska; 4. Tanner Gardner, Stanford; 5.
Charlie Falck, Iowa; 6. Gabe Flores, Illinois; 7. Mike Sees, Bloomsburg; 8. Brandon Precin, Northwestern.
The man on top of the bracket: Escobedo earned the No. 1 seed after knocking off Ness in the Big Ten finals. The Indiana sophomore placed fourth a year ago, suffering both of his tournament losses to Cornell's Troy Nickerson, who has been sidelined this season with a shoulder injury.
The top challengers: Ness had won 35 straight until his loss in the Big Ten finals. Prior to that, he was as dominant as anybody in the country at any weight. Donahoe was a surprise champion last year. He entered the tournament seeded sixth but knocked off the top three seeds in succession to claim the title. Gardner only has lost once this season, but he hasn't seen Big Ten-level competition on a steady basis.
The Hawkeye: Falck got a good draw from a match-up standpoint. He's been blown out in three of four college meetings with Ness, but the Minnesota senior is on the other side of the bracket. Falck's side includes Escobedo, who the Iowa junior has beaten twice in three meetings. Falck has been great on his feet this season, but he must avoid slow starts, and he needs to break his habit of give-up points on the bottom position to get to the finals.
The wrestler to watch out for: Drexel's Steve Mytych gave Falck a tussle in the second round last year. The junior is unseeded this year, but he takes a 37-6 record into his opening-round match against Gardner.
The Press-Citizen pick: Escobedo over Donahoe.
133
The top eight seeds: 1. Franklin Gomez, Michigan State; 2. Jimmy Kennedy, Illinois; 3. Coleman Scott, Oklahoma State; 4. Joey Slaton, Iowa; 5. Nick Fanthorpe, Iowa State; 6. Lou Ruggirello, Hofstra; 7. Mike Grey, Cornell; 8. Mack Reiter, Minnesota.
The man on top of the bracket: Gomez was the only wrestler in the top five of the rankings who didn't stumble in his conference tournament. The only loss for the Big Ten champ came against Slaton in the Midlands finals.
The top challengers: Oklahoma State's Coleman Scott spent much of the season ranked No. 1 after reaching the NCAA finals last year. But Scott has lost four times this season and two defeats have come against unranked opponents. Kennedy lost in the round of 12 last year as a freshman. Fanthorpe captured the Big 12 title. Ruggirello has posted some big wins this season, including a victory against Scott.
The Hawkeye: The bracket sets up well for Slaton, especially if he can get back to scoring early in matches like he did at the beginning of the season. Slaton has beaten all of the seeded opponents on his side of the bracket, and the three-day grind of the tournament should benefit the hard-nosed sophomore.
The wrestler to watch out for: Missouri's Tyler McCormick's 5-8 record is the worst at the weight. The senior has dealt with injuries throughout the season, but he came back to defeat Scott in the Big 12 semifinals and comes into the tournament trying to become the second wrestler in Tiger history to earn all-America honors three times.
The Press-Citizen pick: Slaton over Ruggirello.
141
The top eight seeds: 1. Chad Mendes, Cal Poly; 2. Charles Griffin, Hofstra; 3. Kellen Russell, Michigan; 4. Nathan Morgan, Oklahoma State; 5. Manuel Rivera, Minnesota; 6. J Jaggers, Ohio State; 7. Kyle Ruschell, Wisconsin; 8. Dan LeClere, Iowa.
The man on top of the bracket: Mendes was an all-American two years ago at 125. He redshirted last year, moved up two weights this season and is undefeated at 141. He's a dangerous wrestler who isn't afraid to go for a big move, but he's tough on top and has enough solid skills to get by, too.
The top challengers: Griffin entered the tournament last year as the No. 11 seed and left with a third-place finish. He has wins over Russell and Morgan this season. Russell, a true freshman, emerged as the champion of a loaded weight in the Big Ten. Morgan is one of the best technicians in the country, but he's coming off a loss in the Big 12 finals. Rivera, Jaggers, Ruschell and LeClere have beaten up on each other throughout the year.
The Hawkeye: LeClere has had problems finishing shots and getting off the bottom this year, but he's been able to secure the No. 8 seed with toughness and persistence. He isn't the best athlete in the weight and doesn't have the slickest technique, but he will put pressure on his opponents for the entire match.
The wrestler to watch out for: Army's Matt Kyler was a qualifier last year as a freshman. He is 39-5 this season and has a 9-3 mark against NCAA qualifers.
The Press-Citizen pick: Morgan over Griffin.
149
The top eight seeds: 1.
Brent Metcalf, Iowa; 2.
Dustin Schlatter, Minnesota; 3. J.P. O'Connor, Harvard; 4. Jordan Burroughs, Nebraska; 5. Josh Churella, Michigan; 6.
Bubba Jenkins, Penn State; 7. Darrion Caldwell, North Carolina State; 8. Jake Patacsil, Purdue.
The man on top of the bracket:
Metcalf waited two years to get this opportunity after redshirting at Virginia Tech and sitting out last year following his transfer to Iowa. He earned the No. 1 seed after winning the Big Ten, defeating Schlatter, the 2006 NCAA champion in the finals, and earning the conference wrestler of the year award and being named the outstanding wrestler of the Big Ten Championships.
The top challengers: Schlatter only has lost five times in three seasons. Superb positioning makes the Minnesota junior difficult to score upon. Schlatter beat O'Connor last year in the consolation semifinals. Burroughs, Jenkins and Caldwell are three of the most explosive wrestlers in the tournament, regardless of class. Caldwell, in fact, plans to play defensive back on the North Carolina State football team in the fall. Churella lost in overtime in last year's finals and is hard to score on.
The Hawkeye:
Metcalf has become the face of the Iowa program in his first season in the Hawkeye line-up. His relentless aggression and fast-paced style has worn out opponents.
Metcalf hasn't lost since November on a questionable fall call against Caldwell and has a 13-1 record against NCAA qualifiers.
The wrestler to watch out for: Boston University's Mike Roberts isn't seeded, but he made waves in the sport in December when he beat Caldwell and Schlatter on his way to the title at the Southern Scuffle. Roberts and Caldwell will have a rematch in the opening round.
The Press-Citizen pick:
Metcalf over Schlatter.
157
The top eight seeds: 1. Gregor Gillespie, Edinboro; 2. Mike Poeta, Illinois; 3. Dan Vallimont, Penn State; 4. Brandon Becker, Indiana; 5. C.P. Schlatter, Minnesota; 6. Matt Kocher, Pittsburgh; 7. Cyler Sanderson, Iowa State; 8. Jordan Leen, Cornell.
The man on top of the bracket: Gillespie is up a weight after claiming the title last year at 149. He has won seven straight matches against NCAA qualifiers since losing to Schlatter at the Southern Scuffle.
The top challengers: Poeta beat Gillespie in Las Vegas at the Cliff Keen Invitational, but all of the results from that competition were wiped out by the NCAA after it ruled tournament officials did not conduct proper medical checks. Vallimont has emerged as a title contender after moving up from 149 this season. Becker is a two-time all-American with good scrambling skills. Schlatter's health is a question after he pulled out of the Big Ten meet with an injury. Kocher reached the Midlands finals. Sanderson jumped up in the seedings after winning the Big 12 title.
The Hawkeye: Ryan Morningstar has gone through some ups and downs during his sophomore season. He takes a 20-12 record into the tournament but has just five wins in 15 matches against NCAA qualifiers. Morningstar opens the tournament against Kocher.
The wrestler to watch out for: Jon Bonilla-Bowman contemplated rejoining
Tom Brands and five of his former teammates during the summer, but he opted to transfer to Hofstra instead of Iowa when he left Virginia Tech. Bonilla-Bowman has produced some big scores this season, including a 33-17 win against Nebraska's Chris Oliver and two straight wins against Drexel all-American Ryan Hluschak.
The Press-Citizen pick: Poeta over Gillespie.
165
The top eight seeds: 1.
Eric Tannenbaum, Michigan; 2. Mark Perry Jr., Iowa; 3. Nick Marable, Missouri; 4. Mack Lewnes, Cornell; 5. Stephen Dwyer, Nebraska; 6. Jon Reader, Iowa State; 7. Jake Dieffenbach, Oklahoma State; 8. Moza Fay, Northern Iowa.
The man on top of the bracket: Tannenbaum grabbed the No. 1 seed with a 3-2 win against Perry in the Big Ten finals that evened the season series. Tannenbaum, a three-time all-American, is 26-2 this season.
The top challengers: Marable doesn't score much, but he wins. He has scored 31 points in his last nine matches against NCAA qualifiers. Lewnes has gone 33-3 during his freshman season. Dwyer, Reader and Dieffenbach have traded victories in the Big 12.
The Hawkeye: Perry is the defending champion and can win his second NCAA title -- if he attacks. He changed the lead leg in his stance and was passive at the Big Ten meet. He's the best top-position wrestler at the weight and few come out of scrambles in better position. But he'll need to create more action to fully utilize those skills.
The wrestler to watch out for: Arizona State's Patrick Pitsch has reached the round of 12 in each of the past two seasons. He started this year ranked third in the country. A midseason slump knocked him from the rankings, but he enters the tournament after claiming his third Pac-10 title.
The Press-Citizen pick: Perry over Tannenbaum.
174
The top eight seeds: 1.
Keith Gavin, Pittsburgh; 2. Steve Luke, Michigan; 3. Brandon Browne, Nebraska; 4. Jay Borschel, Iowa; 5. Brandon Sinnott, Central Michigan; 6. Alton Lucas, Hofstra; 7. Matt Stolpinski, Navy; 8. Gabe Dretsch, Minnesota.
The man on top of the bracket: Gavin is one of the four unbeaten wrestlers in the tournament. Not bad for a guy who never placed better than third at the Pennsylvania state high school meet. He became a nationally-known commodity last year when he finished the year in the NCAA finals after starting the season unranked.
The top challengers: Luke claimed his second Big Ten title earlier this month. He hasn't lost since January. Browne had a loss from Vegas eliminated from his record and sits at 24-1 with his only defeat coming in January against Borschel. Sinnott is 10-3 against NCAA qualifiers, including a win against Luke. Lucas is 25-4 and hasn't lost by more than a takedown this season. Stolpinski is one of five returning all-Americans at the weight.
The Hawkeye: Borschel won 12 straight matches in January and February, beating five NCAA seeds in the process. He posted wins against Luke and Browne at the National Duals, but he lost to Luke later in the season and dropped a decision to Dretsch in the Big Ten semifinals.
The wrestler to watch out for: UT-Chattanooga's Lloyd Rogers takes a 26-3 record into his first-round match against Borschel. Rogers won three of his five matches against NCAA qualifiers this season. One of his defeats was a 4-2 setback against Gavin at the Midlands.
The Press-Citizen pick: Gavin over Luke.
184
The top eight seeds: 1. Jake Varner, Iowa State; 2. Mike Pucillo, Ohio State; 3. Tyrel Todd, Michigan; 4. Christian Sinnott, Central Michigan; 5. Josh Weitzel, Oklahoma; 6. Raymond Jordan, Missouri; 7. Phil Keddy, Iowa; 8. Roger Kish, Minnesota.
The man on top of the bracket: Varner doesn't score much. But he manages to score enough. The Iowa State sophomore has used his defense and riding skills to compile a 25-0 record this season. He has 15 wins against NCAA qualifiers and has scored five points or fewer in 11 of those wins.
The top challengers: Pucillo pushes the pace in his matches with an aggressive style. Todd tends to coast at times, and that habit cost him in the final minute of the Big Ten finals against Pucillo. Sinnott has given Varner a pair of tussles, but the Central Michigan senior hasn't been able to knock off the Cyclone. Weitzel, a Michigan transfer, is 24-3. Jordan lost in the round of 12 last year.
The Hawkeye: Keddy arguably has been Iowa's most improved wrestler this season, and perhaps the most improved wrestler in the country at this weight. He qualified for the NCAA meet last year as a freshman but finished the year with a 14-16 record. This year, he's 24-8 and all of his defeats have come against the top six seeds.
The wrestler to watch out for: Nebraska's Vince Jones is one of the most explosive wrestlers in the weight -- and certainly one of the most erratic, too. But Jones has the talent to knock off some top seeds. He owns a past win against Todd and could wrestle the third-seeded Wolverine in the second round.
The Press-Citizen pick: Pucillo over Varner.
197
The top eight seeds: 1. Josh Glenn, American University; 2. Phil Davis, Penn State; 3. Mike Tamillow, Northwestern; 4. Wynn Michalak, Central Michigan; 5. Max Askren, Missouri; 6. Dallas Herbst, Wisconsin; 7. Hudson Taylor, Maryland; 8. Craig Brester, Nebraska.
The man on top of the bracket: Glenn enters the tournament with piles of accolades and little fanfare. The first national champion in American University history hasn't lost since the 2006 NCAA Championships. He suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in last year's finals against Iowa State's Kurt Backes and still won the match in overtime. But the recovery from the injury limited Glenn to 15 matches this season.
The top challengers: Penn State's Davis is one of the best top position wrestlers in the tournament and the three-time all-American has as much NCAA experience as anyone at the weight. Tamillow has made incredible improvement since arriving at Northwestern. Michalak has been one of the top wrestlers at this weight throughout the past three years. He was the No. 1 seed entering the tournament in 2006 but lost in the second round and placed eighth. Askren was the top seed last year and went 0-2.
The Hawkeye: Iowa did not qualify at 197 pounds.
The wrestler to watch out for: UNC-Greensboro's Daren Burns isn't seeded, but he has come within one win of the medal stand in the past. He takes a 24-5 record into his first-round match with Hofstra's Joe Rovelli.
The Press-Citizen pick: Glenn over Davis.
Heavyweight
The seeds: 1.
Dustin Fox, Northwestern; 2. J.D. Bergman, Ohio State; 3. Ed Prendergast, Navy; 4. Matt Fields, Iowa; 5. Jared Rosholt, Oklahoma State; 6. Kyle Massey, Wisconsin; 7. David Zabriskie, Iowa State; 8. Ryan Gritter, Central Michigan.
The man on top of the bracket: Fox isn't the most physically imposing wrestler in the heavyweight class. He has to monitor his weight to stay under 285 pounds, but he moves well for a guy his size and his riding skills have been the difference in several matches this season.
The top challengers: Bergman earned All-America honors twice at 197 pounds before moving up to heavyweight this season. He has more skills than most heavyweights, but hasn't been able to neutralize Fox's size advantage in two meetings this season. Prendergast, a St. Louis native, returns to his hometown with a 31-2 record and the No. 3 seed. Rosholt is coming off a title at the Big 12 meet. Massey is the only wrestler to beat Fox this season.
The Hawkeye: Fields claimed a victory over Massey for third at the Big Ten Championships, and that win was perhaps the difference between the fourth and seventh spots in the seedings for the Iowa senior. Fields still is in search of his first trip to the medal stand, and the bracket sets up well for him to get there. He has won his last two meetings with Rosholt, who is the highest seed in Fields' path to the semifinals.
The wrestler to watch out for: Oregon's Charlie Alexander is one of two Ducks who are representing a program on the verge of extinction. The school is set to eliminate the program after this season. Alexander takes a 23-9 record into the tournament.
The Press-Citizen pick: Fox over Bergman.
Andy Hamilton - Breaking down the Hawks' chances 
Linear Mode
