My only point of reference on this was 4x AA lists so my data is incorrect feel free to correct me. I could have delved deeper but it just would have made my brain NUMB.
I was discussing with some people recently "Likelihood of a Freshman AA" & my assumption was that the lighter weights would be more likely to have this happen. I started looking at the upper weights first.
Since 1971, when freshman were allowed to compete, a freshman has AA-ed a "whopping" 6xs at 190 in 28 years. In the 13 years since the NCAA created the 197 weight class only two freshman has ever reached All-American by my count & that was PSU's Phil Davis & Cornell's Cam Simaz.
If anyone can come up with someone else please let me know.
So that would mean in 41 years 8 Freshman have AAed at the 190/7 weight class.
Freshman AAs at 177/18 don't fair much better with 1 AA @ 175 in 1947, 3 AAs since 1971 @ 177 & 4 AAs @ 184 since 1999. However 2 of of those 4 AAs were NCAA champs.
You have more chance being a Freshman All-American at heavyweight then at that weight class, (13) & out of all these AAs only ONE was a NCAA freshman champ & that was in 1947 @ Heavyweight or UNLIMITED as they called it back then.
As I said I was only using the 4x AA lists so this data could be warped. If anyone has a more extensive data base that would great to know about. I also noticed that since freshman were allowed to compete that only 2 classes have failed to have 4x AAs.