RIP Jacob Schlottke - 1984-2011
"If Cornell finishes ahead of Iowa with five all americans I'll jump into the Des Moines River after finals." -Herkey#1 8/16/12
I think it's exactly 20. The 6th and 8th placers each have 3 losses, but no one else does. I was incorrect.
Seeding is not an exact science at all. Dake wrestled above his seed at 4, Taylor wrestled above his seed at 3. It just comes down to math, as Herkey said there are more opportunities for a higher seed to outplace his seed than there is for a 1 or 2 seed.
Would you make the assumption that those teams that scoried high, say above 60 (Penn State (72.1), Lehigh (67.6), Ohio State (66.7), Edinboro (64.3)) (no idea what the standard dev on this data is) kinda got screwed on their seeding? Or did they out perform? not sure how many wrestlers OSU and Edinboro had, but given the number lehigh and Penn st had it looks like pretty skewed data for those 2 teams.
It would be interesting to see which teams underperformed and which conferences underperformed or overperformed (give a validation to the automatic births). I am assuming that once you get to a score of 50 it means you are placing your seed. Is that right?
Quentin Wright single handedly bolstered PSU to the top of that list with his 2 NCAA performances.
To avoid criticism say nothing, do nothing, be nothing.
it would be interesting to see the average seeding postions of each school with these rankings.
I deleleted the data, but I recall that PSU had sometime close to 12 wrestlers (now I'm virtually sure that was the number based on what follows) in 13 years that didn't meet or exceed seed. 31 did. So 31/43 = 72.1. Lehigh clocks in at 2 meeting or exceeding for each one that doesn't. Iowa and Ok. St. are about 11 "wins" for every 9 "losses", or a little over .500 (50.0 on the referenced scale).
If Quentin had failed to meet or exceed seed in both Nationals in which he's participated, PSU would have been 29/14 and just about dead-even with Lehigh (67.4 v. 67.6). But it's kind of silly to start carving individuals out of the data, isn't it?
You can make a pretty good start on which conferences do well and those that don't be looking at the top 10. I think there were only 16 schools that exceed 50% for their winning percentages over those 13 years.
Steve-I'd be interested to see the totals in the first 11 (under Troy Sunderland) versus the last two (under Sanderson).
2010 - Pataky Unseeded/DNP (not sure how that scores); Molinaro 5/5 (W); Sanderson 4/6 (L); Vallimont 6/2 (W); Erwin 11/DNP (L); Wade U/DNP (again, not sure, but I would guess these are W's). So that would be 4-2, a bit below average - for PSU.
As you might guess, most schools fell in the 40-60% range, iirc.
If I am guessing correctly about the scoring, being unseeded is an "advantage" to some extent, in that you can't post an "L" for your team. But it's also possible to toss U/DNP out of the final data so as not to skew the results. Don't know what methodology was employed.
I was surprised to see four schools score so highly, frankly. The top three in particular posted results I wouldn't have thought likely. PSU's 72.1% is insanely high, and Lehigh and Ohio State also come in at a 2:1 ratio or better, which is mind-boggling to me.
Iowa and Ok. State had about double the tracked wrestlers of Penn State in those 13 years and Minnesota was lagging behind the top two by a decent amount.