My choice:

149 Caldwell - I only give him 50/50 chance to make it through the first round.

I think he is the only #1 that will close to knocked off before the quarters.

In the quarters:

149 Caldwell - If he has survived, he'll go down to Dake here.
Hwt Rey - A fair chance he could be taken out by Clayton Jack, Cameron Wade, or Tony Nelson. Maybe 60% chance he makes it through.
184 Honeycutt - Steinhaus has a good motor and matches up strengthwise with Honeycutt. Again about 60% chance Honeycutt makes it through.

Those are the three I see losing before the semis.

Anybody want to predict a different #1 going down early?