Oliver has been averaging an impressive 4.9 team points per match but has only beaten 2 guys in the top 10, (Hochstrasser & Carter).And though he still may walk through 133 I still feel a battle tested Kellen Russell is just as much as a lock as Oliver & maybe even a little more. I think Kellen just might end up with the NCAA OW for the people he will have to beat for a 3rd or 4th time this year. Watching him @ the B10s against Kennedy & Thorn I felt like the outcome was never in doubt.
And while Russell may only be averaging 3.7 team points per win he is 33-0 vs 23-0 (Oliver) & he is 11-0 vs the top 11 while JO is 2-0. Russell is more like the Patriots or Ravens while Oliver is like the Falcons. Oliver is flashy but hasn't beaten anyone yet while Russell has been slugging out for most of the last half of the season.
Oliver has yet to face any of the top 6 besides Hochstrasser, all of whom could give Oliver a run for his money. That includes Long, Graff & Ramos.
And don't bother comparing Russell of 2 & 3 years ago to now. He has had a year off to get a new appreciation of the sport & has worked on things mentally so he is ready to go next week to win. I would put them pretty close as far as locks go.
If Howe fully recovers & adjusts he could beat JB. I don't see anyone beating Russell.