To decide between multiple wrestlers if they have met the minimum threshold, this week, I counted back the last three dates of competition they have competed in, and whomever's was most recent was selected. Next week, I'll truncate that to two, and the following week, just the most recent one. (and beyond that, whomever is used in the qualifiers, regardless of any 30% minimum threshold)
I suppose Hawkeye fans don't have a legitimate reason to think that the "dual component" aspect of this ranking is bunk? If it were your team I think you'd be singing a different tune. Hell I'd be right there with you saying that the equation is wrong. But since it's the big bad Hawkeye fans that are questioning this then they are somehow uninteligent and are full of homerism and are whining and crying because their team isnt at the top of this ranking.
I could care less where they are ranked because everyone knows who the best team is. The problem I have is that he's got a system that ranks wrestlers based on the results from this season. The team rankings are a direct reflection of the wrestlers rankings. In theory it sounds like a great system but when it is put to practical use the result is wrong. There is a variable in play that he isnt taking into consideration. I don't know what it is but it is there. It's like coming here every week and saying that 2+2=5.
"I like to relax with a chainsaw." Tom Brands 12/4/09
Also in the world of statistics, anomalies can mess with the numbers & outcomes. I trade online & use a number of statistical averages like EMAs, MACD & Fibonacci numbers. But they are all TRAILING indicators as so far not too many mathematicians have found a way to numerically predict the future 100% of the time. ;-P You can find a trend BUT then something IS ALWAYS going to mess with it.
All you can do is staticize the performance & keep tweaking it. But then again that's what the BCS has been trying to do for YEARS & still NO ONE is completely happy. In college FB everyone just tolerates the formula when the real solution is a playoff.
In NCAA wrestling we have a playoff so ultimately the rankings formula is really unneeded yet a pretty good guideline in ranking performance. The wild card in any mathematical formula is of course PEOPLE, the competitor.
I would use Penn State's 141 Adam Lynch as an example of this. He had a terrible record & no one outside the PSU practice room saw it coming but last week he beat 3 ranked wrestler's in a row. His previous performance did not predict that. His last 3 performances will obviously throw that curve into a different level. I do not think that there was any sort of mathematical formula that could have foresaw that.
A few years back, The New York Knicks lost Patrick Ewing for the season due to injury but made it as the 8th seed for the playoffs. Then Ewing came back for the playoffs. I knew the Knicks would beat the 1st seed Heat & they did. It will go down in history as the first time an 8th seed beat a 1 seed but Ewing's injury & just how key he was to his team belie that "supposedly surprising fact."
That's why odds-makers in Vegas hustle personally to not only find the secrets in the numbers but search out the intangibles. I don't think it is really possible to quantify the intangibles.
It would be very difficult to staticize the fact that someone's parent died the day before the match therefore affecting his emotional outlook or the fact that some wrestler broke his finger that morning & is competitively impaired in some way.
Of course you can go the other way & over-think your formula into the ground.
In any event while I agree with Herk & Zapp, I due think that SHP is due some kudos & credit for his formula but also for the sheer size of the number crunching! Well done!
I mentioned that element Herk-the HUMAN factor -why is it one guy who is 30-0 can't beat a 15-15 guy ?? Or has trouble with him?? And , perhaps more importantly , the situation the wrestler is under -some kids handle pressure and some don't -don't you think Beatty often over achieves out of necessity ??
We spoke of this when Rasing wrestled Rosholt-I , and you, thought Rosholt was trying to set Rasing up for a throw to win the match-turns out he was just gassed and rasing nearly beat him -remember how we agreed if we were in that situation where our team needed a fall we sure as hell were not backing up ??
There exists no way to add the Human element into this -but as it stands it is a very useful tool for Fantasy league players .
As a coach if I could figure out kids it would be great !! But I haven't -I can't understand how Kennedy from Lehigh is barely above .500 .