Originally Posted by Gantry

ISU could conceivably win 125, 133, 141, 157, 165, 197 & HWT against Iowa.

True, but those first 5 are toss ups at best for Iowa State. What are the odds they win 5 relatively 50/50 matches.

Originally Posted by goferphan

I actually think Iowa is MORE vulnerable in a dual than at NCAA's. At National Duals, after teams have had some battles, will be interesting to see who the two final teams will be and what they have left in the tank. I disagree a little bit with VA in regards to the analysis of the Iowa/Minny dual and while I think Iowa should win it, I see it going down a bit differently. Remember this dual is in Minneapolis and Mason/Deitchler/C. Yohn won't be mat rookies by then.

125 #4 Sanders wbd #13 McDonough 4-0 I think Sander has the tank to put up bonus.
133 #2 Ness wbd #4 Dennis dec 7-0 That cut for Dennis isn't getting any easier.
141 #7 Thorn lbd #6 LeClere 7-3 This is the pivot match, either way.
149 #14 Mason lbmd #1 Metcalf 7-7 Not willing to hand out a pin or tech fall here
157 #23 Deitchler wbd Ballweg 10-7 If Deitchler shows, I like his chances.
165 #2 Schlatter wbd #4 M* 13-7 Think DS will have speed M* can't beat.
174 UR Glasser/C Yohn lbd #3 Borschel 13-10 Glasser pinned once, never tech'd. Major'd 5x's.
184 #184 Yohn lbmd #3 Keddy 13-14 Keddy tough, Yohn good to keep it to decision.
197 UR Nord/Eidy lbd #7 Beatty 13-17 Beatty didn't put bonus on 2 out of 5 DII guys this year at Iowa City Duals.
Hwt #8 Berhow lbmd Erekson 13-20 Berhow can't be counted on for bonus.

All in all I think there will be more bonus than this but think that I pretty fairly hold back bonus on both sides and split the even matches. The tipping point could be how well the new Gophers wrestle and that its at home. Gophers will need a pin out of Sanders and possibly one out of Deitchler and a slight upset by Thorn but that may be asking a bit much of the Gophers.

You gave Sanders 4 points for the Dec.

I'd be surprised if Mason kept it to a decision.

Yes Beatty didnt bonus all the d 2 guys, but Nord has lost to a few d2 guys right? Well within the realm of possibility. Especially with beattys style, he pushes pace the entire time and Nords tank will be shot by 2nd period. Be surprised if this isnt a bonus.

Also, you said many of the fresh wont be rookies by this time, but I disagree. So far Deitchler hasnt wrestled, Mason I havent seen much on either, and those are guys you are counting on a win and keeping metcalf to a major on. I am thinking they will still be very much rookies at this point.

Originally Posted by goferphan

You hush up. I meant Sanders wbmd, not wbd. Just calling it how I see it LoS, I mean VA. Eidenshenk can keep Beatty to a decision in my opinion if Nord can't. They are just hiding Deitchler, Mason and DS so no one has any film on them. Its double secret stuff, I wouldn't expect you to know it.

So they won't be rookies anymore because they've been hidden?

How that works really is a secret!

Is Eidenshenk going to be the 97 now? I hadnt heard that.

I'm callin it like I see it too.

Originally Posted by goferphan

Did I not give Iowa the dual? I guess I am confused here. I think 20-13 is +/- 2 points close.

Not in a dominant fashion, which is key.