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Burnsie--I think you're pretty close. The one I would differ on is Conaway having a shot at 3rd seed. I know that after he wrestles L Stieber this weekend he'll be 6-2 in the B1G with wins over Graff and Thomas. But I doubt he'd be seeded ahead of Dardanes, and I think there's a significant possibility that Graff and Quiroga will be seeded ahead of him as well (not sure of their B1G records).
I don't know the exact seeding criteria used, but I believe B1G results are supposed to be one of the top determining factors. If based strictly on that, Conaway is 3rd. If the coaches look outside of B1G results, Conaway will definitely drop down the list.
Do you know Graff's, Dardenes's and Quiroga's B1G records? If any of them are 6-2 they would certainly get the seed over Conaway based on their national ranking. If they're 5-3, then Conaway could well get it, but B1G record is not the exclusive determinant from my understanding. But it does go a long way for sure.
149 NCAA ranking, B1G record, (lost to)
1) Grajales #12, 6-0
2) Pouch #9, 6-1 (Grajales)
3) Ness #10, 5-1 (Ervin)
4) Alton #5, 4-1 (Sueflohn)
5) Sueflohn #13, 6-2 (Osterman, Grajales)
6) Tessari #17, 5-2 (Schmitt, Sueflohn)
You don't get seeded if you sit on the sidelines and watch.
I didn't realize Sueflown had gotten stuck by Osterman when I originally posted.
Graff is 4-1, but he wrestled Visconti instead of Stieber. He also started the season at 141 and beat some big 10 guys at that weight.
Dardanelle is 3-2 with losses to Thomas and Ramos. He got Visconti instead of Stieber as well.
Quiroga is 3-0 with no B1G wins over ranked foes.
Ha! That's the sort of thing I do, confusing Dardanes with the Turkish Straits.Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsie1983
Darn auto correct.....
After 4 tough matches a lot has been learned about the team. I think they are still the favorite to win NCAA's, but the margin is going to be much closer than many were thinking early in the year. Here is how I see the individuals faring at nationals:
Nico: I would be shocked by anything worse than a top 4 finish.
Conaway: I think he has definitely qualified a spot at this point, he will probably go 1-2 or 2-2
Pearsall: Not sure he's qualified a spot yet, probably needs to finish 5th or better at B1G's to lock that up. Will go 0-2 or 1-2 if he gets in.
A. Alton: Tough to predict right now... I'll say low AA-r12.
D. Alton: 1st-6th Hopefully he avoids DSJ until the finals, seeding will be very interesting at this weight.
Taylor: He will either finish 1st or 2nd. He should bonus in every match leading up to the finals.
Brown: Has definitely had a rough few weeks, unless he makes great strides over the next few weeks, he'll be a low AA or r12 guy.
Ruth: Anything less than 1st would be a huge shock. Hamlin has given him his closest match to date. Should run into Steinhaus at B1G's.
Wright: 1st-3rd. Will most likely have to get through Wilps again for the chance to face Killer.
Whoever goes should go 1-2 or 2-2.
I think PSU will have 5-7 AA's, and anywhere from 1-4 national champs.
Those four in likely order:
Ruth
Taylor
Mega
Dylan
I'm actually not sure if I would pick Taylor or Mega as being more likely. I think Taylor has no problem getting to finals, whereas Mega could hit Delgado in the semi's. Once in the finals, I almost feel like Mega might have the better shot at McD than Taylor does at Dake.
Note - I'm just assuming that McD gets the 1 seed and Delgado and Mega are the next two. I know this could be wrong, and I am not sure how Waters fits into the mix.