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contini · 05-19-2008, 10:36 PM

Am I the only one who is worried about Obama's campaign strategy of ignoring Kentucky and previously West Virginia?

It seems clear that his strategy is to give up the states that he is not favored in and to win the states that he is favored in, which should allow him to win the delegate race as time runs out. Indeed, this will most likely allow him to win the delegate race and finish off his campaign to be the Democratic nominee. However, my concern is that this strategy is actually decreasing his popular vote lead, which is just going to give Hillary more justification to fight until the last minute, which will ultimately hurt Obama in the long run. The point is that there are Hillary supporters who think she deserves the nomination and will refuse to support Obama if he gets it. Several Hillary supporters have voiced voting for McCain or else writing in Hillary if Obama gets the nomination. The best chance Obama has to getting those votes is by taking Hillary as his V.P., and that still may not get all of them.

Right now Hillary is claiming that she is winning the popular vote, which nobody is listening to except her most naive supporters (Hillary's math just does not add up). The polls all have Obama winning Oregon and Hillary winning Kentucky, but Hillary's margin of victory is expected to be much larger than Obama's. There is a possible chance that Hillary may overtake Obama in the popular vote count even if the count ignores Michigan. Although that count is still disputable, it gives Hillary a much stronger argument and it gives her supporters much more reason to hang on and protest Obama.

If Obama were to at least make one trip to Kentucky, he would probably gain a lot more votes than his current strategy of betting everything on Oregon. This would benefit him in the popular vote count. What do you think?

05-19-2008, 10:36 PM	#1 (permalink)
contini National Finalist Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Sydney, Australia Posts: 906 Tournaments Joined: 0 Tournament Wins: 0	Obama ignoring Kentucky Am I the only one who is worried about Obama's campaign strategy of ignoring Kentucky and previously West Virginia? It seems clear that his strategy is to give up the states that he is not favored in and to win the states that he is favored in, which should allow him to win the delegate race as time runs out. Indeed, this will most likely allow him to win the delegate race and finish off his campaign to be the Democratic nominee. However, my concern is that this strategy is actually decreasing his popular vote lead, which is just going to give Hillary more justification to fight until the last minute, which will ultimately hurt Obama in the long run. The point is that there are Hillary supporters who think she deserves the nomination and will refuse to support Obama if he gets it. Several Hillary supporters have voiced voting for McCain or else writing in Hillary if Obama gets the nomination. The best chance Obama has to getting those votes is by taking Hillary as his V.P., and that still may not get all of them. Right now Hillary is claiming that she is winning the popular vote, which nobody is listening to except her most naive supporters (Hillary's math just does not add up). The polls all have Obama winning Oregon and Hillary winning Kentucky, but Hillary's margin of victory is expected to be much larger than Obama's. There is a possible chance that Hillary may overtake Obama in the popular vote count even if the count ignores Michigan. Although that count is still disputable, it gives Hillary a much stronger argument and it gives her supporters much more reason to hang on and protest Obama. If Obama were to at least make one trip to Kentucky, he would probably gain a lot more votes than his current strategy of betting everything on Oregon. This would benefit him in the popular vote count. What do you think?