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jpv · 05-10-2008, 01:35 AM

There are a number of reasons why Putin's "prediction" will not come true in the next 50 years (to say nothing of 10 years, LOL). Here are some (take into account these are highly subjective; but also take into account that I live in Russia and my wife, colleagues and many of my friends are Russian):

1) Corruption. Russia is and has always been corrupt on a massive scale;
2) Love of bureaucracy. This is closely connected to the corruption point. The State uses ridiculous amounts of bureaucracy in order to suck money from people (and to disctract them from more important things). Also, there's no such thing as "small" government here (meaning the government doesn't know how not to interfere with business and people's lives in general). The Russian government is much better at making people's lives more difficult than helping to improve anything. I have one friend who bought a piece of land near the center of Vladivostok a few years back. All that time and he still doesn't have all the paperwork to make the land officially his--but of course it could be streamlined, said one official, for $100K (yep, you see that number correctly)!;
3) People's attitudes. Ask almost any Russian how any of Russia's social problems should be fixed and you will nearly always get the following answer: The Government. I've never heard a Russian person say that change needs to come from the people. This attitude is counter-intuitive to enterprise;
4) Lack of economic diversity. This country will be in for a rude awakening when and if oil prices drop or their reserves run low. Russia is producing very little outside of oil at the moment. Without diversifying its economy, it has no chance to catch England;
5) Xenophobia. Russians and their government, in general, do not trust anyone outside of those closest to them. They view most foreigners as always having some sort of malicious agenda. At least partially due to this attitude, Russia limits its contacts to outside investment;
6) Opaque everything. It's nearly impossible to get answers to even simple questions here, especially when dealing with the government. While this is not unique to Russia, the sheer scope of ineptitude and opaqueness makes for a treacherous environment to do business in. TRY to get a business license here: You have first find out what the newest law of the day is; you then have to figure out which 16 agencies you must deal with (and get stamps from: Russians LOVE stamps); you have to then figure out the prices of licenses and whatnot--all of which are arbitrary...you get the picture. And NO ONE will have ANY answers for you. You can NEVER find out where you are in the process from anyone. I could go on;
7) Centralization. I will illustrate this point with a little story: When someone sends me a package from, say, the USA, it goes TO MOSCOW first and then comes all the way back to Vladivostok via train (um, that's about 4000 miles ONE WAY). Why? Because the only agency that can check packages in the WHOLE COUNTRY is in Moscow. How can a country with such a centralized and inefficient system (this is in no way limited to the postal service) ever hope to catch up with England?;
8) Lack of infrastructure. You cannot drive from one end of Russia to the other. There is a section somewhere past Irkutsk that has no navigable road. Imagine that:, in 2008! The water in our house inexplicably gets turned off about once a quarter (you cannot get an answer why). There are massive electricity problems. You get the picture;
9) Lack of freedom. Elections are mostly for show here. There's only one political party to speak of. All major media outlets are run by the government.
Did you know that when you drive into almost any Russian city there is a police blockade at the edge of town? They can then stop you for no other reason than the fact that you want to drive into the city. In fact, cops can stop you at any time for no reason. You must register when you go to another city (foreigners and Russians alike--although most locals ignore this) for more than 3 days. You must always have ID on you, as police can stop you for no reason while you're just walking down the street. This is just a sampling of the lack of freedom here. Obviously this hinders standard of living;
10) The education system. It is changing, but the education system here is archaic. Students are mostly given insane amounts of work, and then expected to regurgitate this information at a later time. As a result, there is a serious lack of inventiveness and creativity coming out of Russian schools. Business needs graduates who are creative and think outside of the box--this is not a Russian trait;
11) Poor agricultural policy. Russia, obviously, is HUGE in terms of geographic size. However, its land is vastly underutilized. There are very few farms here. In fact, outside of a few sacks of potatoes from the dacha, most fruits and vegetables people consume here are imported. Russia desperately needs a viable agricultural system in order to rise up; and
12) Laziness. Ask any Russian to give 3 sterotypical traits of Russian people. Invariably, one of the traits that will be given will be "Lazy". It's no secret that Russians have a general disinclination to work. Now, whether that is a result of the Soviet system, or the preceding feudal system, I do not know. But until work is not seen as "only for those who aren't smart enough to figure out how NOT to work," I can't see Russia rising to England's level.

These are just a few of the roadblocks which make Putin's suggestion laughable. He knows it, anyway, he's just being a politician. Russia has a long ways to go before catching up to, say, South Korea. England is another echelon all together.

05-10-2008, 01:35 AM	#12 (permalink)
jpv Redshirt Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 146 Tournaments Joined: 0 Tournament Wins: 0	Re: Oil money come to sweet Russia! There are a number of reasons why Putin's "prediction" will not come true in the next 50 years (to say nothing of 10 years, LOL). Here are some (take into account these are highly subjective; but also take into account that I live in Russia and my wife, colleagues and many of my friends are Russian): 1) Corruption. Russia is and has always been corrupt on a massive scale; 2) Love of bureaucracy. This is closely connected to the corruption point. The State uses ridiculous amounts of bureaucracy in order to suck money from people (and to disctract them from more important things). Also, there's no such thing as "small" government here (meaning the government doesn't know how not to interfere with business and people's lives in general). The Russian government is much better at making people's lives more difficult than helping to improve anything. I have one friend who bought a piece of land near the center of Vladivostok a few years back. All that time and he still doesn't have all the paperwork to make the land officially his--but of course it could be streamlined, said one official, for $100K (yep, you see that number correctly)!; 3) People's attitudes. Ask almost any Russian how any of Russia's social problems should be fixed and you will nearly always get the following answer: The Government. I've never heard a Russian person say that change needs to come from the people. This attitude is counter-intuitive to enterprise; 4) Lack of economic diversity. This country will be in for a rude awakening when and if oil prices drop or their reserves run low. Russia is producing very little outside of oil at the moment. Without diversifying its economy, it has no chance to catch England; 5) Xenophobia. Russians and their government, in general, do not trust anyone outside of those closest to them. They view most foreigners as always having some sort of malicious agenda. At least partially due to this attitude, Russia limits its contacts to outside investment; 6) Opaque everything. It's nearly impossible to get answers to even simple questions here, especially when dealing with the government. While this is not unique to Russia, the sheer scope of ineptitude and opaqueness makes for a treacherous environment to do business in. TRY to get a business license here: You have first find out what the newest law of the day is; you then have to figure out which 16 agencies you must deal with (and get stamps from: Russians LOVE stamps); you have to then figure out the prices of licenses and whatnot--all of which are arbitrary...you get the picture. And NO ONE will have ANY answers for you. You can NEVER find out where you are in the process from anyone. I could go on; 7) Centralization. I will illustrate this point with a little story: When someone sends me a package from, say, the USA, it goes TO MOSCOW first and then comes all the way back to Vladivostok via train (um, that's about 4000 miles ONE WAY). Why? Because the only agency that can check packages in the WHOLE COUNTRY is in Moscow. How can a country with such a centralized and inefficient system (this is in no way limited to the postal service) ever hope to catch up with England?; 8) Lack of infrastructure. You cannot drive from one end of Russia to the other. There is a section somewhere past Irkutsk that has no navigable road. Imagine that:, in 2008! The water in our house inexplicably gets turned off about once a quarter (you cannot get an answer why). There are massive electricity problems. You get the picture; 9) Lack of freedom. Elections are mostly for show here. There's only one political party to speak of. All major media outlets are run by the government. Did you know that when you drive into almost any Russian city there is a police blockade at the edge of town? They can then stop you for no other reason than the fact that you want to drive into the city. In fact, cops can stop you at any time for no reason. You must register when you go to another city (foreigners and Russians alike--although most locals ignore this) for more than 3 days. You must always have ID on you, as police can stop you for no reason while you're just walking down the street. This is just a sampling of the lack of freedom here. Obviously this hinders standard of living; 10) The education system. It is changing, but the education system here is archaic. Students are mostly given insane amounts of work, and then expected to regurgitate this information at a later time. As a result, there is a serious lack of inventiveness and creativity coming out of Russian schools. Business needs graduates who are creative and think outside of the box--this is not a Russian trait; 11) Poor agricultural policy. Russia, obviously, is HUGE in terms of geographic size. However, its land is vastly underutilized. There are very few farms here. In fact, outside of a few sacks of potatoes from the dacha, most fruits and vegetables people consume here are imported. Russia desperately needs a viable agricultural system in order to rise up; and 12) Laziness. Ask any Russian to give 3 sterotypical traits of Russian people. Invariably, one of the traits that will be given will be "Lazy". It's no secret that Russians have a general disinclination to work. Now, whether that is a result of the Soviet system, or the preceding feudal system, I do not know. But until work is not seen as "only for those who aren't smart enough to figure out how NOT to work," I can't see Russia rising to England's level. These are just a few of the roadblocks which make Putin's suggestion laughable. He knows it, anyway, he's just being a politician. Russia has a long ways to go before catching up to, say, South Korea. England is another echelon all together.